Tesla has been rebounding in recent weeks, though the S&P 500 giant is still down so far in 2025. But Tesla stock is extremely expensive by a price-to-earnings metric.
Through May 16, Tesla stock has fallen 13.3%, even with a huge rally since early April. But Tesla's 2025 price-to-earnings ratio has skyrocketed.
Tesla Stock Valuation
| Date | Tesla stock price | 2025 EPS estimate | 2025 P-E ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/30/2022 | 123.18 | $7.93 | 15.5 |
| 3/31/2023 | 207.46 | $6.95 | 29.8 |
| 9/29/2023 | 250.22 | $6.20 | 40.4 |
| 10/31/2023 | 200.84 | $5.56 | 36.1 |
| 11/30/2023 | 240.08 | $5.42 | 44.3 |
| 12/29/2023 | 248.48 | $5.29 | 47 |
| 1/31/2024 | 187.29 | $4.36 | 42.9 |
| 2/29/2024 | 201.88 | $4.24 | 47.6 |
| 3/28/2024 | 175.79 | $3.91 | 45 |
| 4/30/2024 | 183.28 | $3.35 | 54.7 |
| 5/31/2024 | 178.08 | $3.32 | 53.7 |
| 6/28/2024 | 197.88 | $3.28 | 60.3 |
| 7/31/2024 | 232.07 | $3.19 | 72.7 |
| 8/31/2024 | 214.11 | $3.18 | 67.4 |
| 9/30/2024 | 261.63 | $3.19 | 81.9 |
| 10/31/2024 | 249.85 | $3.30 | 75.6 |
| 11/30/2024 | 345.16 | $3.34 | 103.3 |
| 12/31/2024 | 403.84 | $3.34 | 120.9 |
| 1/31/2025 | 404.6 | $3.04 | 133.3 |
| 2/28/2025 | 292.98 | $2.90 | 100.7 |
| 3/31/2025 | 259.16 | $2.74 | 94.6 |
| 4/30/2025 | 282.16 | $2.12 | 133.2 |
| 5/18/2025 | 349.98 | $2.03 | 172.2 |
Source: FactSet
Tesla stock hit a 2025 low of 214.25 on April 7 but really took off after the Q1 earnings report on April 21. CEO Elon Musk promised to refocus on the EV giant and reiterated plans to be a robotaxi launch in Austin this June.
Investors shrugged off a big Q1 earnings miss, with EPS plunging 40% vs. a year earlier. Analysts have continued to slash 2025 EPS targets. From $3.34 a share late last year — and $3.31 just before Q4 earnings report in late January — analysts now expect Tesla earnings to fall to $2.03, a third straight annual decline. More recent analyst estimates generally point to EPS below $2.
With the share price soaring and earnings estimates diving, Tesla's 2025 price-to-earnings ratio has shot up.
Analysts now see a 2025 P-E of 172.02, up from 133.2 at the end of April and 94.6 on March 31.
Still, Tesla's forward price to earnings shot up from 53.7 on May 31 to 75.6 on Oct. 31, 120.9 on Dec. 31 and finally 133.3 on Jan. 31.
Tesla's valuation is far above that of other profitable automakers. Toyota Motor has a forward P-E ratio of 9. General Motors has a 2025 P-E ratio of less than 6. Among other profitable EV players, Li Auto has a forward P-E ratio of 21.5. EV giant BYD, which boasts strong growth and growth forecasts, has a forward P-E ratio of 22.
Ferrari is the only one even vaguely close to Tesla, with a 2025 P-E of nearly 50.
Tesla Bull Case
The vast majority of Tesla stock's $1.13 trillion valuation reflects optimism surrounding self-driving, robotics and artificial intelligence. A growing number of analysts explicitly peg most of their TSLA stock price targets on these moonshots.
Musk once again said on the Q1 earnings call that Tesla will begin paid robotaxi service in Austin this June. But there's skepticism that this will occur, given unofficial data tracking Full Self-Driving disengagements. Musk has promised self driving "this year" or "next year" for a decade. Tesla will likely roll out robotaxis in a small part of Austin, using a lot of teleoperation. It's possible Tesla will have human safety drivers.
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