Tesla Inc.'s (NASDAQ:TSLA) red-hot energy storage business is suddenly staring down a geopolitical cold front—and President Donald Trump may be at the center of it. With second-quarter earnings set for Wednesday, Wall Street is watching closely to see whether Elon Musk's energy ambitions can withstand a fresh wave of tariff tensions that threaten to hit the battery segment harder than the EV business.
According to Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard, Tesla's previously sky-high growth expectations are likely due for a haircut as the company reassesses its FY25 outlook. The global trade climate, particularly around China, is weighing heavily, and Musk has already warned that energy storage will feel the brunt more than cars.
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Tesla's energy storage business exploded by 113% year over year in 2024, driven by surging demand for its Megapack and Powerwall units. For 2025, the company had guided to "at least 50%" growth. But Sheppard now expects that guidance to be revised downward during Wednesday's earnings call, thanks to the ripple effects of shifting global trade policies and tariffs.
While specifics are still uncertain, Trump-era tariffs—or even stricter "reciprocal" measures—could increase costs on key battery components and deployment infrastructure. That would dent margins and potentially slow deployment, even as demand remains high.
Robotaxis And Rate Hikes Won't Save The Day
To be fair, Tesla isn't just a battery story. The company is expected to provide updates on its robotaxi rollout in Austin—part of its broader push into autonomous mobility. But even that moonshot may not distract investors from what happens to Tesla's energy margins.
The bottom line?
What once looked like Tesla's stealth growth engine is now facing external shocks that even Musk can't meme his way through. If Trump's trade policies return—or even loom—Tesla's battery boom may have to find a backup generator.
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