Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) each reported third-quarter vehicle deliveries that came in above consensus. Both companies have headwinds and tailwinds ahead, according to a sector analyst.
Third Quarter Gets Tax Credit Help
Tesla reported third-quarter deliveries of around 497,000, up 7% year-over-year and ahead of Goldman Sachs’ estimates of 455,000.
Rivian third-quarter deliveries of 13,200 were up 32% year-over-year and beat a consensus estimate of 12,700. The total missed a Goldman Sachs estimate of 13,950.
"We note that US EV industry sales likely benefitted from pull-in demand related to the end of the up to $7,500 EV federal tax credit under the IRA," Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said in a new investor note.
Delaney said customers who placed a purchase order and deposit before Sept. 30 could still get the credit, which means there could still be some benefit to EV sales in the fourth quarter and short term.
"However, we expect the loss of the credit to be a headwind for the market in the coming quarters."
Delaney estimates the loss of the credits could lead to a "double-digit percent headwind" for the sector.
The analyst said with the ending of the federal tax credits, new vehicle launches could become even more important and be the major tailwind for investors, citing the Model Y L and lower cost models from Tesla and the upcoming R2 launch for Rivian.
Read Also: General Motors, Ford Hit Record EV Deliveries In Q3: Tax Credit Expiration Or Lasting Growth?
Tesla Price Target Increased
Delaney maintained a Neutral rating on Tesla and raised the price target from $395 to $425 after the third-quarter delivery figures.
"We believe upside relative to our estimate was likely driven mostly by the US market, including vehicles that came out of inventory, aided by buying ahead of the end of the IRA EV purchase credit on 9/30," Delaney said.
The analyst estimates Tesla's US sales were up more than 10% year-over-year in the quarter. Delaney estimates that sales in Europe and China were down year-over-year, but up on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
While the tax credit expiration is a headwind for the fourth quarter, Delaney highlighted several potential positives for Tesla going forward.
The analyst said Tesla's third-quarter earnings and a Nov. 6 shareholder meeting could be future positive catalysts.
Delaney said key topics for the Tesla story include the outlook for vehicle deliveries, automotive margins, progress for robotaxis, progress for FSD, Tesla Energy growth and growth in other segments.
Rivian Guidance Adjusted
Delaney maintained a Neutral rating on Rivian with a $15 price target following the release of third-quarter deliveries.
"Rivian slightly lowered its full year delivery guidance by 500 vehicles at the midpoint," Delaney said.
The analyst said the new guidance implies 42,500 vehicle deliveries at the midpoint, which is in line with Goldman Sachs' estimate of 42,500 and slightly above consensus estimates of 42,400.
Delaney said the key items to watch for Rivian are increased volumes, margins, vertical integration, cash burn, and the supply chain.
Stock Price Action
Tesla stock is down 2.2% to $426.45 on Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $212.11 to $488.54. Tesla stock is up 12.4% year-to-date in 2025.
Rivian stock is down 0.7% to $13.44 on Friday versus a 52-week trading range of $9.50 to $17.14. Rivian stock is up 1.4% year-to-date in 2025.
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