Tesla rivals XPeng, Xiaomi and Nio reported record September deliveries early Wednesday. BYD had lackluster sales at best while Li Auto released weak results.
XPeng and Xiaomi showed continued momentum while Nio ramped up thanks to several new models. Li Auto is still ailing, though new models loom. BYD, which has struggled at home in recent months, is showing some positive signals but those are tentative.
Tesla is set to report global third-quarter deliveries on Thursday morning. The U.S. EV giant saw China vehicle registrations ramp up in recent weeks, but still fell in Q3 vs. a year earlier.
XPeng Deliveries
XPeng delivered 41,581 EVs in September, up 10.3% vs. August and 94.7% vs. a year earlier. It was the third straight record total and beating a Deutsche Bank forecast for 40,000 EVs.
Q3 deliveries surged 149.3% vs. year earlier to 116,007 EVs. That was up 12.4% vs. Q2.
Sales of the Mona M03 have remained strong. The M03 small sedan is the first vehicle in XPeng's affordable Mona line. A revamped flagship XPeng P7 sedan was officially launched on Aug. 27. While not a near one-to-one Tesla rival like Xiaomi, XPeng competes squarely in Tesla's mainstream market.
XPeng sells fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs), though it does plan to release an extended-range electric vehicle (EREV). EREVs are essentially a form of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).
Tesla China Finishes Q3 Strong But Global Deliveries Are All About This
Xiaomi Deliveries
Xiaomi delivered more than 40,000 EVs in September, the first time it surpassed the 40,000 mark. The Chinese handset maker turned EV player doesn't give specific delivery figures. It delivered an estimated 36,396 vehicles.
Xiaomi is a major Tesla rival in China. Its first EV, the SU7 sedan, consistently outsells the Tesla Model 3 in China. The recently launched YU7 crossover is a Model Y rival.
Both vehicles are production constrained.
Both the SU7 and YU7 are BEVs, but Xiaomi is working on a large SUV EREV for production next year.
Nio Deliveries
Nio delivered a record 34,749 vehicles in September, up 11% vs. August's then-record 31,305 and up 64.1% vs. a year earlier. Deutsche Bank had forecast 35,000 EVs delivered.
The BEV-only automaker is seeing strength in its namesake premium Nio brand, the mainstream Onvo line and the affordable Firefly nameplate.
In the third quarter, Nio delivered a record 87,071 vehicles, at the lower end of its 87,000-91,000 target. That was up 40.8% vs. Q3 2024 and 20.8% vs. Q2.
Nio aims to deliver 150,000 EVs in Q4.
Li Auto Deliveries
Li Auto delivered 33,951 vehicles in September, ending a three-month slide with a 19% gain vs. August. But that was down 36.8% vs. a year earlier and below a Deutsche Bank target of 35,000 EVs.
For Q3, Li delivered 93,211, down 39% vs. a year earlier and 16.1% vs. a year earlier.
Li Auto sells mostly SUVs, though it does sell the MEGA minivan. The vast majority of Li's sales are EREVs, but the company is launching a line of BEV SUVs.
Li reportedly got strong orders recently for the all-electric i6 SUV.
S&P 500 Hits High; Tesla Deliveries Loom
BYD Sales
BYD sold 396,270 EVs in September, up 6.1% vs. August but down 5.5% vs. a year earlier. That was the first year-over-year decline since March 2024, though beating the Deutsche Bank forecast of 380,000.
Passenger EV sales were 393,060. Of that, all-electric BEV sales totaled 205,050, up 2.7% vs. August and 24.3% vs. a year earlier. PHEV sales of 188,010 did gain 9.4% vs. August but slumped 25.6% vs. September 2024, the sixth straight year-over-year decline.
Domestic sales have struggled due to competition vs. Geely and Leapmotor, along with sliding PHEV sales. Overseas sales have been strong, though they've leveled off.
BYD's EV sales totaled 1,114,192 in Q3, down 2.7% vs. Q2 and 1.8% vs. a year earlier. Passenger BEV sales were 582,522, down 4% vs. Q2 but up 31.4% vs. a year earlier.
BYD remains the world's largest EV maker by far, trouncing Tesla in overall sales and now the clear leader in BEV sales as well.
BYD makes its own batteries for itself and many third-party automakers as well as energy storage.
Power battery and energy storage battery installations in September totaled about 23.2 gigawatt hours, up just 0.1% vs. August but a 17.2% gain from a year earlier.
Tesla Deliveries
Tesla doesn't report monthly China sales. Insurance registrations, a rough gauge for deliveries, jumped 26.9% vs. Q2 but fell 8.7% vs. a year earlier. Year-to-date insurance registrations are off 6.4%.
Tesla will report Q3 global deliveries before Thursday's open. The official consensus is for 454,130 EVs delivered. That would be up 18.2% vs. Q2's 384,122, but down 1.9% from 462,890 in Q3 2024.
However, more-recent Tesla delivery forecasts have been in the 470,000-495,000 range.
The Kalshi prediction market estimates that Tesla deliveries will hit a record 509,000 vehicles.
Tesla deliveries hit a record 495,570 in Q4 2024.
With Tesla's China and European registrations down vs. a year earlier, the big driver for Q3 deliveries is the Sept. 30 expiration of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit, pulling forward demand. U.S. Tesla demand will likely plunge in Q4 and remain weak for some time.
The EV giant significantly raised U.S. lease prices on Oct. 1.
Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk recently said that Full Self-Driving v14 will have an "early wide" release this week.
China EV Stocks
XPeng stock climbed 1.2% to 23.70. XPEV stock is working on a 24.96 cup-with-handle base.
Xiaomi's U.S. shares, which trade over the counter, rose 0.8% to 35.05. XIACY stock broke out past a 37.21 cup-with-handle buy point on Sept. 25, but quickly retreated below the 50-day line, triggering a sell signal Monday.
Nio stock nudged 0.4% higher Wednesday to 7.65. Shares jumped 5.7% to 7.62 on Tuesday, hitting their best level since January 2024. Nio recently cleared an 11-month consolidation, but there was no prior uptrend.
Li Auto stock advanced 0.6%. Shares are below the 200-day line after an ugly reversal Monday.
BYD's U.S. shares, which trade over the counter, inched up 0.3% to 14.18. BYD stock is in a four-month downtrend, below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
Tesla Stock
Tesla stock rallied 3.3% to 459.46 in Wednesday's stock market trading, hitting a fresh 2025 high intraday. TSLA stock is closing in on the late December all-time high of 488.54.
Tesla stock is on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
