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On today's agenda: Tesla launched a new cheaper Model Y—but is it enough? Plus, Volvo says its EVs are profitable, and Rivian's mysterious robotics venture takes shape.
25%: Tesla, The Model Y Company
Tesla's answer to sagging sales over the last couple of years has generally been: "How about another Model Y?" It makes some sense, as the crossover is Tesla's best seller by far and the most popular electric vehicle on the planet. But it's not clear how much farther Tesla can get by relying so heavily on one model.
Last year, Tesla launched its first refresh of the Model Y in a bid to boost sales. It also rolled out a stretched-out Model YL in China. In October, Tesla unveiled the "new" and "more affordable" models it had been working on. The "Standard" Model 3 and Model Y were basically the same EVs as before, but with cheaper materials, no FM radio and, in the case of the Y, downgraded styling.
Last month, the automaker brought back a seven-seat Model Y to the U.S. market. That brings us to Tuesday, when the EV maker quietly began selling an all-wheel drive take on that stripped-down Model Y. (It also nixed the "Standard" lingo.) The Model Y All-Wheel Drive retails for $41,990 and returns 294 miles of EPA-estimated range. I'll let Iulian Dnistran explain the rest.
Tesla loves throwing more Model Y trims at its problems. But is that enough to keep the EV maker relevant in the auto market long term? Industry analysts doubt it, arguing that what Tesla really needs are actual new models.
The numbers back that up. Despite all the efforts I mentioned above, Tesla's global vehicle deliveries dropped by 8.6% last year, taking revenue down as well. The fact that this new Model Y trim is all-wheel drive (as opposed to the original single-motor Standard cars) could give it a boost.
Now, you may argue that Tesla doesn't really want to be a car company anymore. And that's true by CEO Elon Musk's own admission. The cancellation of the legendary Model S and Model X to make room for Optimus robot production sealed the deal on that.
At the same time, Tesla said in its latest earnings report that it believes it can "win the autos market of the future." I'm not sure how you square that goal with Tesla's Model Y strategy.
50%: Volvo Expects EVs To Be Cheaper Than Gas Cars Soon
Anybody who follows this world closely knows that "price parity" is the tipping point for EVs. In China, it's actually cheaper to buy a plug-in car than a gas one. That's helped "new energy vehicles" rocket past 50% market share there. Ditto for Norway. Generous incentives made EVs irresistible there, and now the market for new gas vehicles is all but extinct.
The U.S. and Europe broadly haven't reached that milestone yet. But Volvo's CEO thinks it's coming.
At a recent event, Håkan Samuelsson told reporters that EVs would "probably" cost less than combustion vehicles in five years, according to The Drive. After that happens, get ready for EV sales to explode.
Eventually, the situation will flip-flop in a fascinating way. Someday, experts expect that gas car sales will decline so much that they become uneconomical to produce, further cementing EVs as the dominant powertrain. But that's much further than five years away.
75%: What Even Is Mind Robotics?
Last week I attended a talk by BloombergNEF's head of clean transport, Colin McKerracher. One of the most interesting parts: He identified a handful of "wild cards" that could change how the EV transition plays out over the next several years. One was the rise of humanoid robots—like Tesla's Optimus bot—that can be put to work in car factories.
Companies from Xpeng to BMW are either developing their own AI-powered robots or buying them from suppliers. Rivian spun off its own mysterious "physical AI" company late last year. Thanks to a new mission statement posted by Mind Robotics, we know a bit more about what it actually plans to do—and how that may benefit the EV startup.
"Our beachhead is automotive manufacturing, an environment that demands both human-like efficiency, and the ability to navigate high-variability workflows," the company said. We are targeting complex tasks such as wire harness assembly, precision part placement, kitting, and sequencing, that have traditionally resisted automation."
Will the robots take on a human-like form factor? It's hard to tell so far.
"We are building a friendly robotic platform designed for safe, effective collaboration alongside humans," the company said, adding that it is "not building single-task machines" and that it is focusing on "a solution that can generalize across core tasks and be deployed across an entire plant."
Let's hope the answer is yes, because I would love to watch a Rivian versus Tesla bot cage match before the decade's out.
100%: Humanoid Or Not?
You already know this, but I am no roboticist. Still, I'm skeptical of the whole humanoid-robot approach. Hands with five fingers, like Tesla is developing, are extremely complicated. It seems a lot more promising to me to develop smart robots that don't look and function exactly like humans. Am I wrong?
