Tesla vehicle insurance registrations in China soared sequentially last week but with the second quarter almost done registrations are down more than 3% compared to the first quarter, when China vehicle sales were arguably the only bright spot for Tesla's EV business. TSLA stock edged down in stock market action Tuesday.
Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled around 15,500 for the week of June 9 to June 15, up nearly 80% from the 8,640 the previous week, according to data compiled by independent China auto industry trackers on Tuesday. Registrations may have been affected by a holiday in that prior week.
However, 11 weeks into Q2, Tesla registrations in China are roughly 3% below the seasonally weak Q1 and down nearly 17% vs. a year earlier. Since the beginning of 2025, Tesla vehicle registrations in China are down about 7%. Registrations act as a rough gauge for deliveries.
Through the first five months of 2025, Tesla vehicle sales in China's domestic market have fallen nearly 8% compared with the same period in 2024, according to data released Monday by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). In May, Tesla sold 38,588 vehicles in China, down 30% vs. the 55,215 sold a year earlier. That's vs. a 28% gain in China local sales for electric vehicles.
Meanwhile, Tesla rival Xiaomi is poised to release its "Model Y killer" earlier than expected, adding pressure to Tesla in the highly competitive Chinese EV market. Xiaomi will release its YU7 crossover vehicle at the end of June, instead of the previously expected July release, Xiaomi Chief Executive Lei Jun announced Sunday.
U.S. sales of Tesla vehicles in the U.S. fell 16% in April, according to recently released data from S&P Global Mobility.
Tesla stock fell 3.9% to 316.28 during Tuesday's stock market after adding around 1.2% to 329.13 on Monday, regaining its 21-day line.
Q2 Delivery Expectations
Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan on Tuesday wrote that Tesla is facing deteriorating fundamentals, and free cash flow (FCF) could turn negative for the first time since 2018.
"We now expect FY deliveries down 21% y/y," Langan wrote. He added that "Q2 deliveries look ~flat vs. a weak Q1."
Guggenheim analysts on Friday wrote that Tesla stock continues to be driven by robotaxi and political narratives in the near term. The analysts added that the company's fundamentals "continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate."
Guggenheim expects Q2 Tesla global deliveries to come at 360,000, and believes there will be "sizable" negative revisions soon by other analysts.
The current consensus has Tesla vehicle deliveries of 399,000, which is 10% below a year ago but about 18% above the Q1 total, according to FactSet. However, few analysts have updated their deliveries forecasts since late April.
At the end of last year, when Tesla was predicting 20%-30% EV delivery growth in 2025, the Q2 consensus was 502,000.
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Tesla Stock Analysts Split On Robotaxi Impact
TSLA advanced more than 10% last week, reclaiming the 200-day moving average and 50-day line. Chief Executive Elon Musk set a "tentative" date of June 22 to launch the robotaxi ride-hailing service in Austin, Texas.
Despite surging on robotaxi bets following the April 22 Q1 conference call, TSLA stock is down about 22% for the year. The stock has also retreated 35% from its all-time high of 488.54.
Baird analysts last week downgraded TSLA to neutral from outperform, with an unchanged 320 price target. The analysts wrote that Tesla stock has performed well since Q1 earnings, advancing more than 20%, primarily due to anticipation for the launch of the limited robotaxi service.
Musk's robotaxi ramp up rate predictions "are a bit too optimistic" and this excitement has been priced into Tesla stock, according to Baird.
Tesla is a "known" autonomous vehicle, or AV, operator in Austin as of June 17, according to Austin's Transportation and Public Works website. The EV giant is in the "testing" phase of autonomous driving operation in the city.
Tesla stock has a 21-day average true range of 5.37%. The ATR metric, available on IBD's MarketSurge charting tool, gauges the characteristic breadth of a stock's behavior. Stocks that tend to make large jumps or dives in daily stock market action, the kind that can trigger sell rules and shake investors out of a stock, have a high ATR. Stocks that tend to make more incremental moves have lower ATRs.
Tesla stock has a 70 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. The stock also has a 92 Relative Strength Rating and a 59 EPS Rating.
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