Tesla China vehicle registrations totaled 19,300 in the week ended Sept. 28, the strongest performance of the third quarter. The EV giant is expected to report global Q3 deliveries on Thursday. Tesla stock edged higher Tuesday, buoyed by yet another analyst price target hike.
The last full week of third-quarter registrations were 11.6% higher vs. 17,300 in the prior week, which was up from 15,350 in the week before that. The data is compiled Tuesday by independent China auto industry dealers.
Tesla's China insurance vehicles ramped up as the Q3 ended, along with most other big Chinese EV makers as they try to maximize quarterly figures.
The new, slightly longer wheelbase Model Y variation has given an incremental boost to sales since deliveries started Sept. 2. It's unclear whether limited demand or production capacity is restraining stronger numbers.
Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, jumped 26.9% vs. Q2 but fell 8.7% vs. a year earlier. Year-to-date insurance registrations are off 6.4%.
Tesla Q3 Deliveries Loom
Tesla deliveries on Thursday are expected to come in at 447,750, according to the analyst consensus forecast compiled by FactSet. That would be up 16.6% vs. Q2's 384,122, but down 3.3% from 462,890 in Q3 2024.
However, not many analysts have updated targets since late July. More-recent Tesla delivery forecasts have been in the 470,000-495,000 range.
The Kalshi prediction market estimates that Tesla deliveries will hit a record 509,000 vehicles.
Tesla deliveries hit a record 495,570 in Q4 2024.
Market Rises As Shutdown Looms; Nvidia Breaks Out
With Tesla's China and European registrations down vs. a year earlier, the big driver for Q3 deliveries is the Sept. 30 expiration of the $7,500 U.S. tax credit, pulling forward demand. U.S. buyers can take delivery later and still get the EV tax credit as long as they make a firm order by Sept. 30 with at least a nominal payment.
Still, U.S. Tesla demand will likely plunge in Q4 and remain weak for some time. CEO Elon Musk said on the Q2 earnings call that Tesla faces a few "rough" quarters following the end of U.S. tax credits.
Ford CEO Jim Farley said Tuesday he expects that U.S. market share for all-electric vehicles will be a record in September than plunge 50% or more in October.
Tesla rivals XPeng, Xiaomi, Nio, Li Auto and perhaps BYD will report September and third-quarter deliveries early Wednesday
Tesla FSD v14 Coming
On Sept. 25, Musk wrote on his social site X that Full Self-Driving v14 will have an "early wide" release this week. It's unclear if that means all FSD users with Hardware 4.0 will gain access, or if FSD v14 will initially go to a limited number, such as Tesla influencers. Tesla vehicles with HW3.0 will not get FSD v14.
He said FSD v14.1 will follow two weeks later, followed by 14.2 soon after. "The car will feel almost like it is sentient being by 14.2," Musk wrote.
Musk has previously described FSD v14 as "sentient." In years past, Musk would refer to big Tesla FSD updates as "mind-blowing" or "blow your mind."
Tesla Stock Edges Higher
Tesla stock rose 0.3% to 444.72 in Tuesday's stock market trading, after falling more than 2% intraday. TSLA stock is closing in on the late December all-time high of 488.54.
Overnight, Canaccord hiked its Tesla stock price target to 490 a share from 333, keeping a buy rating.
Please follow Ed Carson on Threads at @edcarson1971 and X/Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.
