This may be a bit premature, because David Cameron hasn't spoken yet, but by now the picture is pretty clear. What have we learned about the Tories?
1. The Tories can probably persuade voters to accept drastic cuts that will make them poorer
This is the big one. One of Gordon Brown's great achievements was to manage public opinion to the point where he was able to announce a tax increase in the 2002 budget, saying he needed the money for the NHS, and then (contrary to received wisdom) watch his opinion poll ratings soar. George Osborne seems to have achieved something similar.
Politicians have for months been talking about cuts in general terms. On Tuesday Osborne went much further, proposing a series of measures that would make millions of people poorer. We don't know yet what the long-term consequences will be, and, if inflation takes off before the spring, the pay freeze proposal could look disastrous. But the Tories tested their plans in focus groups and they believe the public will support them. The early evidence suggests that they are right.
Most of the comment about Osborne's announcement has focused on the merits or flaws of his spending plans. In one respect, that misses the point. Politically, this was all about showing leadership. Cameron emerged well out of the expenses scandal because he responded to it decisively more quickly than Brown did. Brown and Alistair Darling have acknowledged the need for cuts, but they haven't provided details. The Osborne package means the Tories are winning the leadership battle on economic policy too. On the subject of leadership, the conference has emphasised the extent to which the Conservative party has become the David Cameron party. The Tories go up in the polls whenever he appears on TV, they wheel him out whenever they're losing control of the media narrative – as we saw on Monday, when he addressed the conference after a morning of Euro-split stories – and opinion polls show that he is . There are some Tories who do not particularly like Cameron and his clique, but respect for him is now near universal. At the conference no one has challenged him at all. Simon Heffer, the anti-Cameron Telegraph columnist, at a fringe meeting, and David Davis, the only backbencher who could possibly be seen as a rival to Cameron, now seems to be . On the first day of the conference, Eric Pickles, the chairman, said the Conservatives were "a truly progressive party who want to be judged by how we treat the poorest in society", and social justice has been a theme in many of the speeches heard on the conference platform. This is new, . But the concern for social justice is still partial – for example, for a list of some of the progressive measures that the Tories aren't proposing – and activists seem less keen on this than the party leadership. Tory parliamentary candidates have been on display all week and there are more female, gay and lesbian, and ethnic-minority candidates lined up to fight winnable seats than ever before. showing this clearly. The Tories have still got a long way to go before their parliamentary party becomes fully representative, but they have definitely made progress. The Tories came to Manchester anticipating a row about the Lisbon treaty referendum, but it never really took off and . But it did not take long in Manchester to find fringe meetings packed to overflowing with activists calling for a wholesale renegotiation of Britain's relations with the EU, or even withdrawal. With on this, Cameron could be heading for trouble in the future. Raising the inheritance tax threshold has now become the Conservative party's most embarrassing policy – because Labour portrays it as a tax break for millionaires – and, , ministers thought Cameron would drop it this week. He didn't. He believes that "a promise is a promise". Whether or not this is wise remains to be seen. Manchester Central, the conference venue, has this week been a magnet for quangocrats, pressure groups, lobbyists, media bigwigs and anyone else wanting to suck up to the next government. Not surprisingly, establishment Britain has decided that Cameron is going to win. Even on the BBC last night. There used to be a time when Labour conferences had debates that affected policy and Tory conferences had debates that did not matter. Now Labour has debates that do not matter and the Tories have given up on debates altogether. There are just speeches, and daytime-TV-style "chats" on comfy chairs. Ordinary activists seem to have had less chance to speak in the conference hall than ever before. This wasn't a conference. It was a convention.
