1) Lions tour could take its toll
Ireland broke the mould in 2014 but before that, as sure as death and taxes, France would win the first Six Nations championship after a Lions tour, often with a grand slam to boot.
Getting back on the treadmill a couple of months after a draining southern hemisphere tour is not easy and while the majority of Test Lions will not been seen in the first couple of weeks of the season rediscovering form can be difficult indeed. As Ben Youngs explained last week when discussing his withdrawal from the tour of New Zealand due to family reasons: “I know in 2013 how much I struggled to hit form and get back. It was basically two seasons rolled into one.”
An unexpected draw against the All Blacks has meant a number of players’ stock has risen before the new season but it will be a tall order living up to those standards throughout the campaign.
2) International players not always wanted
Why did Exeter win the Premiership title last season? Was it because of Gareth Steenson’s nerveless kicking at Twickenham or Henry Slade’s colossal left-footed punt against Saracens? Or maybe it was their 10-match winning run that began during the early stages of the Six Nations. The Chiefs do not suffer nearly as badly as their rivals when it comes to the international windows and it must be considered a significant factor behind their success.
Other sides have taken notice and recruitment across the board is beginning to reflect an awareness that the best value is in players who will not be lost for large parts of the season. There is not an influx of overseas players as in France yet but the number is growing because, increasingly, form during the two international windows will be key to the end-of-season shake-up.
3) New challengers needed at top
For all that the climax to last season’s Premiership was thrilling – the two semi-finals will linger long in the memory – it must be remembered that it was the same four sides contesting the play-off as 12 months previously. Bath came a lot closer to getting back into the semi-finals but the jockeying for positions five and six is more competitive than the top four.
This term, with Todd Blackadder enjoying a full pre-season at The Rec, there is the expectation that Bath will again be more competitive but when it comes to Harlequins, Gloucester and Northampton, as well as the upwardly mobile Sale and Newcastle, it is hard to see them moving ahead of last year’s top four in the pecking order. It would be a shame if the top four becomes a closed shop.
4) Chiefs out to conquer Europe
The champagne was still flowing after last season’s Premiership triumph when the Exeter chairman, Tony Rowe, declared that his ambition was to be the best in Europe. It would appear the logical step – of Exeter’s four appearances in the European Cup they have made it to the knockout stages once – but pitted against Leinster, Glasgow and Montpellier they are in a fiercely competitive pool.
Last season, they were outclassed at Sandy Park twice by French opposition but this season there is a determination to assert themselves on the continent. Rob Baxter has expressed concerns that his hardest task is re-motivating what is a similar-looking squad after their Premiership success so it may be the case that we see the best of Exeter in the Champions Cup.
5) Greater expectation on England
Considering that the All Blacks are not among their opponents, for England this would appear to be a less than stellar autumn set of fixtures. Australia will always relish the prospect of an upset at Twickenham and there will no doubt be some verbal jousting between Eddie Jones and Michael Cheika but, with the greatest respect to the Wallabies, Argentina and Samoa, they are matches England are expected to win.
In Stuart Lancaster’s era these matches would have added intrigue because England were a transitional side and demonstrating development was just as significant as the result. This time last year, however, Jones had made winning his modus operandi – England were yet to be beaten under him – and so the manner of victories against South Africa, Fiji, Australia and Argentina mattered less. Each was far from faultless and there will be a greater expectation on England to win with greater precision this time around.
6) New laws should increase the pace
The season kicks off on Friday with six new law amendments for players, coaches and referees to get their heads around – three at the scrum, three at the ruck/tackle area. First, the scrum where the changes include a compulsory strike for the ball, allowing the No8 to reach in and pick up the ball and a tweak to the put-in; all effectively done to speed things up by reducing the number of penalties and reset scrums.
The three other amendments are that a ruck can be formed by a single player, that a defender cannot kick a ball forwards out of a breakdown and that a defender can only play the ball from their side of the tackle. Again, three changes to encourage quickly recycled ball for the attacking side.
It may explain why Leicester’s Matt O’Connor, along with George Ford and Jonny May among the summer arrivals at Welford Road, said: “The new law variations have changed the way teams will play and we’re more equipped for that than we would have been 12 months ago.”
7) Watch out for Manu Tuilagi’s future
For reasons of simplicity, the RFU has opted against making England’s elite player squad public this season. It is unlikely there are any surprise names among it if for no other reason that Eddie Jones was without 30 players for the trip to Argentina and, as a result, there are upwards of 60 he has recently called upon in some form or another. It means that in terms of personnel the greatest intrigue of the autumn series will be if and how Manu Tuilagi plays – Jones recognised as much last month and talked him up to set the agenda on his terms, but it backfired. Still, if fit, Tuilagi is likely to get his chance. Second, it means that time is running out for players who are not on that lengthy list to stake a claim for the World Cup. If there is to be a bolt from the blue they are likely to have to start the season at a considerable rate.
8) New era for South African sides
A new dawn for the Pro14 with a blend of optimism that things will be all right on the night after a tireless summer working behind the scenes to reshape the competition, now in two conferences of seven teams, with the addition of the two South African franchises. But for all that the Pro14 chief executive, Martin Anayi, has confidently outlined that this is just the start of the expansion, trumpeted the commercial benefits and moved to allay fears over player welfare in what is now a cross-continent competition, it will not be a good look if the Southern Kings and the Cheetahs are not competitive.
The Kings have one player with international experience in their squad – the Bloemfontein-born Dries van Schalkwyk who has 15 caps for Italy – and the Cheetahs three, with fewer than 10 Springbok caps between them. The Kings are away to the defending champions the Scarlets on Saturday, the Cheetahs at Ulster on Friday. A thrashing for either will be an early cause for concern.
9) Wales v NZ; Gatland v Hansen
The jewel in the crown of the autumn fixture list is undoubtedly Wales hosting New Zealand on 25 November. Warren Gatland is back at the helm for Wales and gets another crack at Steve Hansen, as will a number of his players.
Traditionally, Wales do not fare particularly well during the autumn – in the past it has been a time of year when Gatland tries (often unsuccessfully) to unearth a few unpolished gems but last year Rob Howley was criticised for not introducing enough new blood during an insipid campaign. Gatland’s approach will be fascinating, but you sense the visit of the All Blacks is not the time to turn to youth.
Other autumn highlights include Ireland hosting South Africa, a test of how resurgent the Springboks actually are, and Georgia’s trip to Cardiff the week before New Zealand – all credit to the WRU for arranging that match.
10) Bristol’s big chance
Spare a thought for Hartpury College. Newcomers to the Championship, and playing on Sky Sports for the first time, they gained promotion to the second tier by winning all 30 of their National League One matches last season. It is highly unlikely that their winning streak will be extended on Sunday. They are away to a Bristol side who have bolstered their squad with the signings of Ian Madigan, Steven Luatua and Alapati Leiua to name just three.
Bristol will also begin the season knowing that this time they cannot be tripped up by the end of season play-offs – the winner of the Championship now rewarded with automatic promotion.
It could be a long afternoon for Hartpury but it will be a short season for Bristol.
