So, it all gets going a week today with West Indies v Pakistan in Jamaica. In a futile bid to make the time pass more quickly, the Spin has come up with 10 World Cup hopes, of which only one or two actually involve England winning the thing ...
1) The group games produce an upset. World Cups usually throw up one or two, even if Kenya's progress to the semi-finals last time was over-reliant on boycotts. But if every group match involving a minnow runs according to plan, we could have 20 extremely dull matches on our hands - and many more articles deriding the competition's structure. The Spin will settle for Ireland beating Zimbabwe.
2) The pitches make life interesting. Many have been relaid, and that means the coach's nightmare: unpredictability. The worst-case scenario for the fans would be a collection of slow puddings that make dibbly-dobblers look like world-beaters. The best would be if the pitches vary from venue to venue, force teams to think on their feet and place a premium on all-round skills. Oh, and a few last-over finishes would be nice.
3) No one fails a drugs test. The withdrawal of Shoaib Akhtar and Mohammad Asif from the Pakistan squad, ostensibly because of injury, lessens that possibility, but the last thing cricket needs is a repeat of the Shane Warne/Mrs Warne fiasco of four years ago. Given the potential dullness of the opening fortnight, an off-field scandal would be perfect fodder for the legions of bored journalists, but poor PR for a sport that can ill-afford it.
4) Brian Lara dazzles. This will be his last World Cup but his first in the Caribbean, where cricket needs a pick-me-up. Much is made of West Indies's dark-horse potential, and with good reason. Yet they enter the competition below even England in the ICC one-day rankings. The former West Indies captain Jimmy Adams told the Spin recently that enthusiasm for the game in the Caribbean remains high. Now it just needs a focal point. A glorious Lara swansong could be the answer.
5) Shane Bond does not break down. No Shoaib, no Asif and no Brett Lee equals not a lot of genuine pace. And that makes Bond the most probable provider of stump-shattering thrills, providing he can change the habit of a lifetime and stay fit for longer than a couple of matches. He is also the one bowler most likely bowler to beat Australia by himself: 11 ODIs against them so far have brought 34 wickets at under 14.
6) England do not revert to their pre-renaissance form. This is not merely a patriotic plea. A strong England will add a dimension to the tournament that no one expected a month ago. A weak England will mean a passenger in the Super Eights, which will just be tedious. The game against New Zealand on March 16 will tell us a lot: both sides ought to be buzzing after beating Australia. The one that carries over the confidence could reach the semi-finals.
7) The rest of the world keeps up the pressure on Australia. This is not merely an anti-Aussie plea. It is a plea for the most open World Cup since 1992, when only Zimbabwe had no chance (and even they beat England, the eventual runners-up). The worry is that the Australians got their shockers out of the way before the tournament started. Then again, their attack looks distinctly hittable in the absence of Lee. It could boil down to whether everyone else has the nerve to exploit this.
8) The small boundaries do not dominate. Everyone wants to see sixes. No one wants to see miscues clearing the ropes on a regular basis. If this is the competition that persuades the ICC to stop bringing in the boundaries, then something good will come of it. Totals of 350 will lose their lustre if 36 runs per innings come via top-edged pulls. Twos and threes ought to play a part in the one-day games too.
9) A star is born. Take your pick from New Zealand's Ross Taylor, India's S Sreesanth, Sri Lanka's Lasith Malinga or West Indies's Dwayne Bravo. Or maybe even England's Ravi Bopara. Individual tours de forces add sparkle to World Cups - think of Mark Greatbatch and Inzamam-ul-Haq in 1992 or Sanath Jayasuriya in 1996 - and generate interest beyond them. With Lara, Sachin Tendulkar and Glenn McGrath all on their way out, now is the time to shine.
10) A new name is engraved on the trophy. OK, so this gives England a one-in-three chance - New Zealand and South Africa are the other major teams never to have won it - but does anyone outside Australia really want to see an Aussie hat-trick? The law of averages, however, suggests South Africa's luck has to turn. In 1992, they were undone by Richie Benaud's ridiculous rain-rule; in 1999, by Allan Donald's equally ridiculous run-out; and in 2003, by a hopeless application of Duckworth/Lewis. Four in a row would be too much. Wouldn't it?
This is an extract from Lawrence Booth's weekly cricket email The Spin.
