Global average temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels this year and for the next four years afterwards, the United Nations warned on Thursday.
The 11 hottest individual years ever recorded all happened from 2015 onwards and the UN’s weather and climate agency said the trend was set to continue, with a new hottest-ever year “likely” before 2031.
There is a 75% chance that the 2026-30 five-year mean temperature will surpass the key threshold of 1.5C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, the World Meteorological Organization said.
The WMO outlook comes as western Europe swelters under a “heat dome” of warm air, breaking temperature records for May in Britain and France.
“There is an El Nino predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the WMO’s Global Annual-to-Decadal Update.
The last El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high at around 1.55C above the pre-industrial average.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, bringing worldwide changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
It typically takes place every two to seven years and lasts around nine to 12 months.
