Picking the biggest game on the Big Ten slate comes down to this question: Do you trust your eyes? Or trust the trend?
Michigan is favored by a touchdown at Michigan State. Makes sense. The Wolverines just throttled Wisconsin. Meanwhile the Spartans have impressed only twice all season _ beating Indiana on the road and shocking Penn State with a clutch 78-yard drive.
But here's the thing: Michigan rarely beats Michigan State. And, incredibly enough, the Wolverines are 0-10 against the spread versus the Spartans since 2008. That's not a just trend, that's getting smacked on the head with a two-by-four during a cold shower.
On top of that, Michigan has lost 17 consecutive games to ranked teams on the road. The losses to "little brother" MSU (jab courtesy of Mike Hart) in 2011, 2013 and 2014 are included.
So what's my pick? Keep reading. Picks are against the spread (from VegasInsider.com consensus at 9 a.m. Thursday):
