Nov. 14--Why do point spreads rise and fall?
Vegas wants to balance the wagers on each side. As long as it's about even, the sportsbooks make money on the vig (the 10 percent "commission") on losing tickets.
So how to explain what transpired when undefeated Michigan State played at 3-6 Nebraska last week? The line shrank from six points to 31/2 at kickoff.
Here's the crazy part: More than 80 percent of the bets, according to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, were placed on the Spartans. Bell told me the "professionals and steam chasers (those who track and mimic the professionals) were on Nebraska."
And you'll never guess what happened: Thanks to some horrid Sparty defense and a flubbed call on the decisive touchdown pass, the Cornhuskers won outright. Score another one for the professional bettors -- and those chasing their steam.
On to the games:
Maryland (plus 15) at Michigan State: Michigan State's gregarious defensive end Shilique Calhoun took to Twitter on Thursday to entertain Nebraska fans. The good humor and emojis were appreciated, but MSU coaches probably wanted Calhoun thinking about the Terrapins, who should beat this spread.
Ohio State (minus 16) at Illinois: The playoff selection committee is basically telling the Buckeyes: We know you're great. Now show it already.
Purdue (plus 15) at Northwestern: The Wildcats always seem to stumble as double-digit home favorites. So pinch your nose and take those rancid Boilermakers.
Michigan (minus 13.5) at Indiana: A novel concept for some Hoosiers football fans -- remain in the stadium past halftime. Take the Wolverines.
Nebraska (minus 8.5) at Rutgers: With receiver Leonte Carroo upgraded to probable, the Scarlet Knights are the probable pick.
Minnesota (plus 9) at Iowa: Could justify either side ... but suspect the Hawkeyes will cover.
Last week: 3-4*.
Season: 36-44-1.
*I picked Penn State plus 21/2 at Northwestern last Friday, but the line dropped to 11/2 by Saturday morning. The Wildcats won by two. We count that as a loss. And now I need to find the emoji for a frown.
tgreenstein@tribpub.com
