For years, for decades, forever, Northwestern basketball has been on the outside looking in.
Now, with a shade less than half of their season in the books, the Wildcats are on the inside looking out. Which is to say they did enough in November and December for bracketologists to project them as an "in" come March.
And enough for Jay Bilas, the ESPN/CBS analyst who knows college buckets better than you know your own life history, to make this bold proclamation on Twitter last week: "Northwestern is a fun team to watch, and will play in the NCAA Tournament."
Not "might," not "could" ... "will."
"I've watched them a lot," Bilas said by phone. "Scottie Lindsey is really good. Vic Law stretches you out and makes shots. Bryant McIntosh is one of the better playmakers in the country. They have won some important games. And you also have to look at the quality of the losses."
The Wildcats lost by two at Butler on a step-back jumper with less than a second to go. They led Notre Dame on a neutral court with 20 seconds to play before losing by four.
OK, but as CBSSports.com analyst Jerry Palm put it: "If all you have is close losses, then you don't have much."
What you need is victories over NCAA Tournament teams. The 12-3 Wildcats potentially have two, against Wake Forest and Dayton. They might be able to snag a third Thursday night when Minnesota visits Welsh-Ryan Arena for an 8 p.m. Central tip on ESPNU.
An early season Ratings Percentage Index is about as reliable an indicator as a minute of time to measure global warming, but still ... the 13-2 Gophers had a Big Ten-best RPI of 10 entering Wednesday (Northwestern was 46) and are coming off a victory over Purdue at Mackey Arena.
"Northwestern's next six games (Minnesota, at Nebraska, at Rutgers, Iowa, at Ohio State, Nebraska) are either teams they have to beat or teams they will be competing with for tournament spots," Palm said. "It's a disappointing year for the Big Ten, so it's a little tougher to resume-build."
The only rock-solid tournament teams appear to be Wisconsin and Purdue. Indiana, which has lost three straight but beat Kansas and North Carolina, has an RPI of 139.
"Right after exams, stuff like this happens," Bilas said. "In 2009, North Carolina was No. 1 in the country and lost two of its first three conference games. Nobody touched 'em the rest of the year.
"I think the (Big Ten) is really good and balanced. It will be easier to clip teams at the top of the league, but some at the bottom are a lot better."
Bilas said if Northwestern makes the tournament, it will be "a huge national story." To get there, the Wildcats need to beat teams like Minnesota and hope Wake Forest (20 RPI) and Dayton (29) win big.
Palm believes selection committee members will take Northwestern's quality losses into account if the Wildcats are on the bubble, going head to head with another team's profile.
"It's the amorphous body-of-work thing," Bilas said. "It's whatever they want it to be. The target changes every year."
Bilas believes this will be the year.
NU coach Chris Collins hopes his fellow Dukie is right but cautioned: "It's nice to get that respect and it's great that people are taking note that we have talented players, but we have more season left than we've played. We have to show up every night."
