The UK will win six fewer medals at the Rio 2016 Olympics than in 2012 when Britain hosted the games, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.
In a report that partly uses macroeconomic conditions to predict each country’s performance, the economists said Britain’s medal haul would fall without the boost that countries typically get from home advantage.
Team GB will win 23 gold medals – six fewer than four years ago – but its tally of other medals will stay the same, sending the total down to 59 from 65, Goldman said.
The UK will still be third in the medal rankings behind the US in first place and China in second, Goldman predicted. The US will win one fewer gold medal, but its total will rise by three to 106. China is predicted to pick up two fewer golds with its total rising by one to 89.
Brazil will gain from hosting the games, adding five medals, including two golds, to take its total to 22, the company forecast. However, the $10bn spent on infrastructure and logistics to prepare for the games will not be enough to stimulate the $1.8tn Brazilian economy, which is in a deep recession, Goldman said.
The biggest loser in medal terms will be Russia, which is embroiled in a doping scandal that will result in many of its athletes being barred. Goldman predicted Russia would win 24 fewer medals than in 2012.
The Goldman economists predicted the UK’s medal tally correctly in 2012 and the top 11 nations for total medals won. They admitted beginner’s luck and the randomness of small samples may have played a part in their success.
The economists argue that countries with healthy economies and political systems should do better at the games and that “a country is more likely to produce world-class athletes in a world-class environment”. They also look at population size, previous medal success and the effect of hosting the games.
The report said: “Without an in-depth knowledge of elite athletes, recent performance metrics, and event details, it would be surprising if broad econometric exercises based on macroeconomic relationships weren’t only a very rough guide to predicting Olympic success.
“Still, the predictive success of our last effort suggests that at least at the level of a country it may be possible to identify the ingredients of winning.”
The economists from the world’s top investment bank said their report was meant as a piece of “summer fun”.
City analysts do not have a good recent record for predicting major events. Despite commissioning exit polls on the day of the EU referendum, banks were caught out by the vote to leave.
