Economists at Goldman Sachs will be forced to revisit their models after Team GB confounded the investment bank’s forecasts for the Rio Olympics.
Before the games, analysts at the world’s most powerful investment bank predicted the UK would come third in the medals table behind the US and China and win six fewer medals than at London 2012.
The economists said without home advantage Team GB would win 59 medals including 23 golds – six fewer than four years earlier. They made predictions for all countries based partly on economic and political conditions, which they argued played a part in athletic performance.
Team GB was confirmed in second place on Sunday behind the US with 66 medals including 27 golds. Britain was also guaranteed a further gold or silver for Joe Joyce in the boxing on Sunday evening, taking the total to 67 compared with 65 in 2012.
The Goldman economists said at the time of publication that their report was a piece of “summer fun” but that they were emboldened by predicting Britain’s medal tally correctly in 2012 and the top 11 nations for total medals won.
Goldman’s most confident assertion was that former hosts do worse four years later without the euphoria and comfort of home advantage. With more medals than at any games since 1908, Team GB appear to have confirmed the economists’ suspicion that beginners’ luck and randomness played a part in their past success.
A spokesperson for Goldman Sachs was not available for comment.
