TCU vs. Kansas State fearless prediction and game preview.
TCU vs. Kansas State Broadcast
Date: Saturday, October 19
Game Time: 2:30 ET
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Network: Fox Sports Network
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TCU (3-2) vs. Kansas State (3-2) Game Preview
Why TCU Will Win
There’s absolutely no consistency, but when the defense is on, forget about it. Rested and with two weeks to prepare, it should be ready to handle the also equally K-State attack.
The Horned Frogs own third downs on both sides of the ball, they own the time of possession battle, they’re killers against the run, and they lead the Big 12 in total defense.
They do most of the things Kansas State has to do, only a little bit better.
So how did they get torched by Iowa State and SMU? Those were the two losses, and they’re the two games when the opposing passing game clicked. And no, not all of the teams in the three wins struggled to throw – TCU stuffed Purdue, too.
In all three wins, the other side failed to connect on half of their passes. Kansas State has only hit the 200-yard passing mark twice this year and only threw for multiple scores against Bowling Green.
TCU is 3-0 when allowing fewer than two passing touchdowns. To take this further, the program has won its last six games when it hasn’t allowed two scores and is 14-1 over the last two-plus years when doing that. However …
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Why Kansas State Will Win
There’s one part of the Kansas State gameplan and world that TCU doesn’t have locked down.
Turnover margin.
Yes, the two games the Horned Frogs lost were mostly about the opposing passing games, but they were also a -2 in each game in turnover margin. Going back to last year, TCU has lost six of its last seven games when it’s lost the mistake battle.
Kansas State? It was a -2 against Baylor two weeks ago, but it hasn’t lost the margin to anyone else.
Beyond that, the Wildcat defense has become special on third downs – it’s third in the nation behind Wisconsin – the secondary has been able to lock down enough to lead the Big 12 in pass efficiency D, and only those Badgers are better at controlling the clock and the tempo.
TCU loves to slow things down, too – it’s second in the Big 12 in time of possession – but K-State is better when it comes to pacing.
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What’s Going To Happen
Both teams are rested, both teams are similar in styles, and both teams are going to want to try enforcing their will on the other.
The difference is that TCU’s defense is just a bit better, and the offense has the ground game to do just a wee bit more. The Horned Frogs have a pass rush, the Wildcats are just okay up front, and in the end, TCU will be able to do what it wants and needs to do just a bit more.
TCU vs. Kansas State Prediction, Line
TCU 24, Kansas State 16
Bet on TCU vs. KSU with BetMGM, or for latest line
TCU -3.5, o/u: 45.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 3
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Must See Rating: 3
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