- OBR apologises for publishing fiscal outlook early
- Two-child benefit cap limit scrapped at cost of £3bn
- £2,000 cap for salary-sacrifice pension contributions from April 2029
- 3p a mile tax on drivers of battery electric cars from April 2028
The UK’s economy will grow more slowly than predicted over the next four years, according to a forecast that was published early in a Budget blunder.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast gross domestic product would grow by 1.5% this year, an increase from its earlier 1% forecast.
But it downgraded growth in 2026 from 1.9% to 1.4%, in 2027 from 1.8% to 1.5%, in 2028 from 1.7% to 1.5% and in 2029 from 1.8% to 1.5%.
The OBR document also confirmed Rachel Reeves’s Budget “raises taxes by amounts rising to £26 billion in 2029-30, through freezing personal tax thresholds and a host of smaller measures”.
The freeze in tax thresholds will result in 780,000 more basic-rate, 920,000 more higher-rate, and 4,000 more additional-rate income tax payers in 2029/30, raking in about £8 billion for the Exchequer.
The freeze will extend for three years to 2030/31.
Other personal tax changes include £4.7 billion through charging national insurance on salary-sacrificed pension contributions, and £2.1 billion through increasing tax rates on dividends, property and savings income by two percentage points.
Measures revealed by the OBR document include:
– The amount of headroom the Government has against the Chancellor’s day-to-day spending rule will widen to £22 billion in 2029-30, £12 billion more than in March.
– The 5p cut in fuel duty will remain in place until September 2026, when it will be reversed through a staggered approach.
– The two-child benefit cap is being removed at an estimated cost of £3 billion by 2029-30.
– A high-value council tax surcharge on properties worth more than £2 million will raise £0.4 billion in 2029-30.
– Debt will rise from 95% of GDP this year to 96.1% by the end of the decade.
– Consumer Prices Index inflation is forecast to be 3.5% this year, higher than the 3.2% forecast in March, and 2.5% next year, higher than the 2.1% previously forecast, before settling at the 2%.
– Unemployment is also forecast to be higher than previously forecast until 2029, peaking at 1.8 million next year.
A link to our Economic and fiscal outlook document went live on our website too early this morning. It has been removed.
— Office for Budget Responsibility (@OBR_UK) November 26, 2025
We apologise for this technical error and have initiated an investigation into how this happened.
We will be reporting to our Oversight Board, the Treasury,…
The OBR document is not meant to be released until after the Chancellor has delivered her Budget in the House of Commons.
But it was published on the Budget watchdog’s website early, the latest in a series of leaks and early disclosures in the run-up to Ms Reeves’ statement.
The OBR apologised, blaming a “technical error”.
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride said it was an “utterly outrageous” leak of market-sensitive information which could constitute a criminal act.
Ms Reeves said it was “deeply disappointing” and a “serious error on their part”.
