Preferences were distributed on Wednesday in the Tasmanian Senate race, the first state to finalise its Senate result. The Tasmanian result gives us an insight into how the rest of the Senate results might play out, and gives us a lot more information about how the new voting system is working.
There is no change in party representation from Tasmania in the Senate. Labor retained five seats, the Liberal party retained four, the Greens retained two, and Jacqui Lambie was re-elected on her own ticket.
As predicted, Lisa Singh and Richard Colbeck both polled strongly on below-the-line votes: Singh received 6.12% of the vote, and Colbeck received 3.97%. This was enough to elect Singh, while the candidate ranked fifth on the Labor ticket, John Short, missed out. Colbeck was not so lucky and got knocked out late in the race.
Singh and Colbeck led the other contenders for the last four seats on primary votes, but struggled to gain preferences. Colbeck was overtaken by fourth Labor candidate Catryna Bilyk, Greens candidate Nick McKim, fellow Liberal David Bushby, and eventually by One Nation’s Kate McCulloch.
McCulloch came within 141 votes of winning the last seat, losing to the Greens’ McKim.
The Tasmanian result gives an insight into what is likely to take place in the other states, where votes are still being counted. We don’t have any official data yet on preferences from other states.
When the voting system was changed, there were predictions that most voters would just vote one, and seats would be decided on very low votes, with a lot of votes exhausting.
In reality, hardly anyone in Tasmania voted just one – only 1.5% of above-the-line votes were just for a single one vote, while 85% of above-the-line voters marked exactly six boxes.
Only 2.8% of votes ended up exhausting, and only one seat was decided with less than a full quota of votes. There were predictions that seats would be decided on first preferences, with preferences between minor parties drying up – this turned out to be overblown hype, at least in Tasmania.
The Tasmanian result tells us that preferences will be critical in every other Senate race. There are a lot of preferences in play in each state, and most of them will flow. There was speculation that One Nation would not benefit from preference flows, but the Tasmanian experience suggests that One Nation will have no trouble attracting preferences from the numerous other minor rightwing parties in races in New South Wales and Western Australia. These preferences have become less predictable, but will still be crucial.
Other state results won’t be quite the same as in Tasmania. Almost 29% of votes in Tasmania were below the line. While below the line voting is up substantially in most states, it will be much lower in the bigger states. It’s also likely that more votes will exhaust in the big states, thanks to a larger ballot and less experience with this kind of voting system.
There are close races in at least four of the mainland states, and these results will have a critical impact on the makeup of the new Senate.
In New South Wales, One Nation is leading for the 11th spot, with David Leyonhjelm of the Liberal Democrats leading for the 12th spot. The Christian Democratic party appears to be the main rival for this seat, and all three parties are in contention to win one of the last two seats.
In Queensland, nine seats are clear, including a seat for Pauline Hanson. The LNP and Labor both appear likely to win an additional seat with preferences, and the last seat is an open race with the Liberal Democratic party in the lead.
In Victoria, 10 seats are clear, with the Greens’ Janet Rice and the fifth Coalition candidate leading for the last two seats. If preferences don’t favour these parties, they could be under threat from any number of minor parties including One Nation, the Liberal Democrats, the Nick Xenophon Team, the Sex party or Animal Justice.
In Western Australia, One Nation is leading in the race for the 11th seat. If One Nation can hold off their challengers, the last seat will end up being a very close race between the Greens’ Rachel Siewert and the Nationals’ Kado Muir.
In South Australia, it seems likely that the final seat will go to the fourth Labor candidate, but if preferences flow strongly to either One Nation or Family First, they could have a chance.
There are lots of parties who have a shot, but if the most likely outcomes play out, the new crossbench will mostly consist of three blocs of senators. The Nick Xenophon Team remains on track to win three senators in South Australia, with an outside chance of a fourth in Victoria. One Nation is on track to win three, with a slim chance in South Australia. The Liberal Democrats could well miss out on representation, but are currently leading for two seats. If these three parties all win multiple seats in the parliament, it will have a big impact on the dynamics in the new Senate.
