Will Hodgman’s Liberal government is on the cusp of being returned to power at the Tasmanian state election on Saturday, according to the first independent poll of the campaign.
A poll by Tasmanian market research company EMRS, published on Tuesday morning, found support for the Liberals at 46%, well ahead of Labor on 34% and the Greens on 12%.
The results are in line with those in a ReachTel poll published by News Corp on Saturday that had the Liberals on 46%, Labor on 31%, and the Greens on 12%. While small sample sizes in each of the state’s five multi-member electorates makes translating the vote to seats difficult, polling analysts said it suggested the most likely result was the government being returned with 13 seats, Labor winning 10 and the Greens two.
It follows an election campaign which has gained national attention following Labor’s pledge to remove poker machines from pubs and clubs. Meanwhile, the Liberal party and its business supporters are arguing majority government is vital to maintain the state’s improving economic performance.
The latter case has been backed by what is expected to be a record amount of advertising spending for a Tasmanian election, much of it warning against a return to a Labor-Greens minority government.
The EMRS poll indicates a significant bounce in support for the government since the previous survey in December, when the major parties were level on 34%. It also suggests Rebecca White’s honeymoon run since assuming the Labor leadership last March has come to an end. In December, EMRS had White 13 percentage points ahead of Hodgman as preferred premier.
The latest poll has Hodgman at 48% compared with White’s 41% - in relative terms, a 20 percentage point turnaround in less than three months. The EMRS chief operations director, Samuel Paske, said it seemed voters who had parked their support with minor parties at previous polls had returned to the Liberals as the election neared.
The proportion of voters backing the Greens has fallen five percentage points to 12% since December, while indicative support for the untested Jacqui Lambie Network halved to 4%.
“Based on these numbers it supports the line that the Liberal party has been running – that there is only one viable option that can form majority government,” Paske said. “The question now is whether they can get there in those key seats.”
The Liberal party currently has 15 out of 25 seats after being returned to government in a landslide four years ago following 16 years in opposition. Labor was reduced to seven seats and the Greens to three.
The government’s stronghold of support is in the state’s north. Polls suggest it should win three out of five seats in both Bass, centered around Launceston, and Braddon, which takes in Devonport and Burnie on the north-west coast.
Analysts say it is placed to also win three seats in Lyons, a rural seat in the centre of the state, and may be reduced to two seats in Franklin, in the suburban and rural south. Whether it can reach majority may depend on the results in Denison, which takes in the central and northern suburbs of Hobart and is the only seat where polls suggest Labor is ahead.
The ReachTel poll suggested the Liberals were on track to have two MPs in Denison – enough to get it to majority. On Monday, Greens leader Cassy O’Connor she she would introduce a motion of no confidence in the Liberal party on the first day of the new parliament, reversing an earlier pledge to work with either of the major parties to ensure stable government.
She said the Greens had changed their stance because the government refused to reveal the extent to which the gaming and hospitality industry was bankrolling its campaign. Political donations during the campaign do not have to be made public until early 2019.
“We are watching an election being bought by big business,” O’Connor said. Labor said it would not support the Greens motion, describing it as a stunt. But it did not rule out introducing its own motion of no confidence.
The Greens are in a fight with Labor to retain their third seat in Bass, held by the relatively low-profile Andrea Dawkins, who replaced former leader Kim Booth when he resigned in 2015. Polls’ support for the minor party has fallen significantly since 2010, when it held five seats and shared government with Labor.
Election analyst Kevin Bonham said EMRS polls before previous elections tended to inflate the Greens vote and underestimate support for Labor.
“If you assume that again, it might be even worse for the Greens – they might not even get two, though their vote is now so low that may be less of a factor,” he said.
The EMRS poll of 1,000 randomly selected voters was conducted between Saturday and Monday. The results exclude voters who said they were undecided.
