That’s where we’ll leave our live coverage of the Tasmanian state election.
Thanks for sticking with me tonight, it was great to have your company.
We’ve seen a resounding victory for the Liberals in Tasmania, though there are still several seats undecided. For a full wrap of today’s events, have a read of my colleague Adam Morton’s piece here.
Until next time.
Wrapping up a huge night in Tasmanian politics
Let’s catch our breath, momentarily, and recap on an intriguing nights of politics in Tasmania.
The Liberals have won a majority. They will continue to govern for four years.
Here’s what we know about the result so far:
- The Liberals will form a second consecutive majority government in Tasmania, quite an achievement in a Hare-Clark system prone to producing hung parliaments.
- The Liberals had won 13 seats by Saturday night, Labor eight, the Greens one, and three were still unknown. The Liberals may pick up another seat in Franklin, where they are facing off against the Greens for the electorate’s final spot.
- The Liberals may have to work with a slender majority. They may end up with 12 seats on the floor and one in the speaker’s chair. Will Hodgman, in his victory speech, offered an olive branch to Labor and the Greens, and urged them to work together in a positive fashion over the next four years.
- The Greens have had a poor showing. It is as bad as their horror result in 1998. The Greens look likely to be reduced to at least two seats from three. The results are not yet final. They may end up with one or three seats in the final count. Despite the bad result, Greens leader Cassy O’Connor described her party as “the real opposition” in Tasmania.
- Labor has clawed back some of the heavy losses it sustained in 2014. There was a swing towards Labor, but it went nowhere near the level needed to give the opposition a chance of dislodging Will Hodgman. By the end of Saturday night, our election guru Ben Raue gave Labor eight seats, although they were a chance in others.
- Labor leader Rebecca White struck a note of optimism in her concession speech, which she delivered about 9.40pm. She said Labor had turned around its fortunes. She said “who would have thought that today we would be pushing a Liberal government to the point that they were nearly defeated?”.
- Both Labor and the Greens decried the role of wealthy vested interests in the election. Rebecca White and Cassy O’Connor both made accusations that seats had been “bought”. They said the gambling industry had helped to fund a vast advertising campaign on behalf of the Liberals. The Greens called for immediate donations reform, to give Tasmanians real-time reporting of election funding. Under current rules, the election funding is not disclosed until 2019.
- There was some tragic news early in the evening. Former Liberal attorney-general Vanessa Goodwin passed away after a battle with brain cancer. Goodwin was a close friend of Hodgman’s and well-respected across the political spectrum. She was diagnosed with cancer last year and resigned from cabinet. Hodgman fought back emotions as he paid tribute to Goodwin during his victory speech.
- The Jacqui Lambie Network, as predicted, failed to make a mark on the election campaign. It did not pick up a single seat. Jacqui Lambie said that her party had nowhere near the level of money to use in its campaign as the major parties. She warned Tasmanians would be shocked when they learned where the money invested the campaign had come from.
- Labor’s stance on pokies was a defining element in the campaign. Some of their candidates said it had hurt the party’s prospects in parts of the state. It had also mobilised gambling and hospitality groups against the opposition.
- Federal Liberal senator Eric Abetz said the result had no implications for the federal Coalition.
Updated
We saw a shift in the polls in the last few weeks, with the Greens vote dropping, and the Liberal vote climbing.
The actual result suggests this shift was bigger than the polls predicted. The Liberal vote climbed from 41% in January to 46-48% in February polls, with an actual result of 50%.
The Greens vote dropped from 15-17% in late 2017 polling down to 12-13% in recent polls, but are now sitting on just over 10%.
Hodgman concludes his relatively short victory speech. He was at times emotional as he spoke of his friend Vanessa Goodwin. Hodgman finishes with this:
I can assure you that never before have I had a stronger resolve to lead a government, a majority Liberal government that will forever do what is in our state’s best interests at every turn and I will work with my team every single day to make Tasmania the very best it can be and to take the state to the next level.
He is chanted off the stage to “four more years”.
An emotional @WillHodgman claims victory in the 2018 Tasmanian election @893lafm #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/WgsGA8qTnr
— 893LAFM (@893lafm) March 3, 2018
Updated
Hodgman is now paying tribute to Vanessa Goodwin, the former attorney-general and a close friend of Hodgman’s, who died on Saturday after a battle with brain cancer.
To the friends and family of Vanessa Goodwin, who has been the strongest support to me and part of the team that has got us to this point, I give you my thanks and
I thank you, Vanessa, for what you have done to help me and our party be the very best that it can be.
Hodgman thanks Labor leader Rebecca White and Greens leader Cassy O’Connor, and says he looks forward to working with them in parliament.
He describes the Liberal party as a “great party, a proud party”.
@WillHodgman says he looks forward to working with @bec_white and @CassyOConnorMP in the new parliament. #politas #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/h9PDWdRYpF
— Rhiana Whitson (@rhianawhitson) March 3, 2018
Will Hodgman claims victory in Tasmanian election
Hodgman is speaking now.
Tonight, Tasmanians are giving us the honour and the responsibility of delivering for the next four years under a majority Liberal government.
To the state that I love and the people of Tasmania who have made a decision about the future direction of our state. Four years ago, they voted for change. Tonight they have voted for no change, to stick in the direction the state is heading and to taking it to the next level
Updated
Premier Will Hodgman has entered the tally room to thunderous applause and chants of “four more years” from the Liberal party faithful.
O’Connor says donations reform is now a priority. She says of the Greens:
We can’t be bought and we won’t sell out. We will always be here for the love of this island its people.
O’Connor warns the Liberals they have “no mandate” for weakening gun laws in Tasmania.
You try to keep that policy secret from the people of Tasmania and it didn’t work.
O’Connor said it had been a “difficult” campaign. They were vastly outspent by the millions of dollars flowing into the Liberals party’s coffers from the gambling industry, she says.
And it is money that has come out of the pockets of some of the poorest people. It is money that comes from human hardship. These machines are located in pubs and clubs in areas of economic disadvantage deliberately. And that is why we have fought so hard, so hard, to get poker machines out of pubs and clubs in Tasmania. We know they are lethal and toxic machines.
@CassyOConnorMP “it’s been a difficult campaign for us. We were significantly outspent by @TasmanianLabor and massively outspent by @TasLiberal” “millions and millions of dirty money.” #politas #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/1hoVfJeijr
— Rhiana Whitson (@rhianawhitson) March 3, 2018
Earlier, O’Connor thanked the Greens team for their campaign. She says she is proud of the policies the party took to the election. Earlier, she described the Greens as the “real opposition” in Tasmania.
Thank you so much from the bottom of my green heart, to everyone who was part of our team, who got out there and campaign for the love of Tasmania, this beautiful island. Campaign for our national parks, our forests, our extraordinary marine environment. Campaign for democracy, thank you.
And we did put some great policies out there. Donations reform. An ... inquiry into foreign ownership and influence, and we will move for that in this next parliament. An investment in our extraordinary national parks and World Heritage areas.
Updated
Greens leader speaks
Cassy O’Connor is speaking in the tally room about the Greens’ poor showing in the Tasmanian election. The party may be reduced to two seats.
She congratulates both of her opponents, something that was noticeably absent from Rebecca White’s speech.
I would like to congratulate Rebecca White are fighting hard, and she did. And congratulations to Will Hodgman on what looks like a win. I do wish you well, and I do hope that over the next four years you put this island and its people first.
Greens Leader Cassy O'Connor delivering her speech. Tough night for the Greens, who have lost a seat and have one in doubt @abchobart #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/UCEDtlTreW
— Georgie Burgess (@GeorgieJBurgess) March 3, 2018
Updated
Greens post historically bad result
Let’s look at the Greens’ overall result.
While the Greens could conceivably retain all three of their seats at this election, they’ve only won one seat so far. This is the worst result on a seats basis since the 1998 election, when the party lost all of its other seats following a reduction in the size of the parliament.
The Greens have been running statewide election campaigns for 29 years, since they won the balance of power in 1989.
The worst Greens result in that time was in 1998, when they polled only 10.2%, and won a single seat.
They are currently sitting on a total vote of 10.3% - almost exactly the same as what they polled in 1998.
Liberals win 13 seats, Labor eight, Greens one
The Liberal Party has won 13 seats (a majority), with a chance of two other seats. Labor has at least eight seats, while the Greens are home in one seat. By my count, there are three seats still in play, and none of these seats will be decided tonight.
The last seat in Bass is a contest between a second Labor seat and Greens MP Andrea Dawkins. It’s not clear which Labor candidate is in the best chance to win the seat, but Labor is closer to winning that final seat. This is on top of three Liberal seats and one Labor seat which have been decided.
Labor is in the lead for the final seat in Braddon. Labor has won at least one seat, which will either go to Anita Dow or sitting MP Shane Broad. The other of these two candidates will face off against the fourth Liberal MP (either Roger Jaensch or Joan Rylah). Labor is more likely to win that seat.
The Liberal Party’s third candidate is in a race with Greens MP Rosalie Woodruff for the last seat in Franklin. Labor has won a second seat, while Will Hodgman’s massive personal vote has locked in at least two Liberal seats. The total Liberal vote sits on 2.91 quotas, while the Greens are on 0.85 quotas. 78% of the entire Liberal vote was a personal vote for Hodgman, and many of those votes will flow on as preferences. There’s reason to believe that quite a few of these votes will flow to candidates outside of the Liberal ticket, which could strengthen Woodruff’s position.
Rebecca White has finished her concession speech. She kept a fairly optimistic and defiant tone throughout and sought to raise hope that Labor was now in a position to win government in four years time. White spoke at length about the turnaround she had achieved from 2014, when Labor were cast out into the political wilderness.
She appeared to be positioning herself to stay on as leader, despite the defeat.
Consider these words, the last she uttered in her concession speech:
I know that we can be better. That’s what I’ll be working towards every single day. I am so excited about the prospects for the Labor Party because we have got an amazing, talented, dedicated group of passionate people who want Tasmania to be better, because we love this place. I’m looking forward to tomorrow, and what the future brings.
Updated
White says Labor’s result was a dramatic turnaround from the last election.
Who would have though that today we would be pushing a liberal government to the point that they were nearly defeated.
White says seats in parliament should not be 'bought'
Rebecca White is making some pretty strong statements about the influence of powerful and wealthy vested interests in the election. She says of the Liberals’ campaign:
It has been the most well resourced in Tasmania’s election history and it should not be the case that you can buy a seat in the Tasmanian parliament. That is shame.
The Tasmanian people should be represented by the best representatives, not the richest.
Her words are met by cries of “shame” from the Labor faithful.
Sweaty business in the tally room @abchobart #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/QvViEXebVf
— Georgie Burgess (@GeorgieJBurgess) March 3, 2018
Updated
Rebecca White said Labor’s team spoke with 200,000 individual voters.
That is extraordinary, and you should all be so proud of the work’s that gone in... those one-on-one conversations are so important.
Rebecca White:
The people I have spoken to, sitting in their lounge rooms, talking to them when we have knocked on their doors, phone calls I have had with people about the crisis that the Tasmanian health system right now. There can be no denying that. They want a better health system.
People who voted Labor this election because they wanted a better public education system. They want a properly resourced TAFE system. They want affordable housing. People who voted Labor because they are shut out of the housing market in Tasmania. They are being let down.
Labor concedes defeat
Labor’s Rebecca White is conceding defeat.
The Labor party is stronger because of a campaign that we have run in this election. We always knew we were up against it, and we have very nearly pushed a first term government to defeat.
Bec White in tally room. Says Labor has very nearly pushed a first time government to defeat @themercurycomau #politas #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/rrRjCVYsoU
— Simeon Thomas-Wilson (@Simeon_TW) March 3, 2018
Updated
Labor leader Rebecca White has entered the tally room to give her concession speech.
She’s received a huge round of applause. The tally room is absolutely packed.
The tally room in Hobart is packed, standing room only, and filled with whoops and bursts of cheering from Liberal supporters.
White and O’Connor are both expected to address the room before Hodgman makes what will be a triumphant entrance.
Waiting for the leaders #tasvotes2018 pic.twitter.com/hcmQqSJQLp
— Adam Morton (@adamlmorton) March 3, 2018
Updated
Eric Abetz reckons there are no federal implications from the Liberals’ win in Tasmania.
I don’t think there are any federal implications here.
I’m sure Malcolm Turnbull will be thrilled to hear that.
Antony Green calls election for the Liberals
There we have it. Antony Green has called the election for the Liberals, who will win a clear majority.
Has @AntonyGreenABC called #tasvotes? pic.twitter.com/AnJjvzIhFZ
— ABC Hobart (@abchobart) March 3, 2018
Updated
Although Labor is no chance of forming government, party luminary Michael Aird is hopeful his party will claw themselves back from political oblivion.
The former state treasurer, with more than 30 years in politics behind him, is predicting Labor will end up with 10 or 11 seats and the Liberals will scrape through with 13, with an uneven split of votes in the north and south.
That’s a significant improvement for Labor, which won just seven seats last election.
“It’s much better than last time, and if it was going south I wouldn’t be talking to you, I’d be straight to the bar,” he told AAP from the tally room.
“For Labor to have any traction and achieve majority we have to win three seats in Lyons, Denison and Franklin.”
There are reports that the Labor leader, Rebecca White, will concede defeat at 9.30pm. We will bring you that news as soon as it happens.
Tasmanian businesses are welcoming the likelihood of a majority government. Speaking to the Examiner, the Launceston Chamber of Commerce executive officer, Neil Grose, said:
From the Chamber point of view it’s good because it’s a majority government, so we don’t look like heading toward a minority which has never been great for Tassie.
It has been a rough night for the Tasmanian Greens. They look most likely to take two seats, down from three. Greens senator Nick McKim conceded it had been a “tough night”, but said the Greens could come back from this result.
Tough night for us, but we’ve been in more trouble than this in the past, and come back strongly. We were down to one seat in 1998.
Updated
Federal Labor senator Julie Collins has all but conceded that Tasmania will have another four years of majority Liberal government.
It’s starting to look like that.
But she pays tribute to the efforts of Rebecca White, the Labor leader. Labor was a huge underdog, she says. Collins says Labor had to deal with a scare campaign and an advertising spend unlike anything she had ever seen.
I don’t think you can walk away from what an extraordinary comeback it is for the ALP tonight. The swing towards us in just four years is something 12 months ago people would not have predicted and I think that’s due to Rebecca’s leadership
Well, we’ve just heard a very interesting chat with Labor MP David O’Byrne, who has been re-elected.
O’Byrne was asked whether Labor’s policy to remove pokies from pubs and hotels should be reviewed. He was asked multiple times, but offered a fairly lukewarm support. He said the policy aligned with Labor values, but that:
After every election, you consider every policy that was put forward to the people of Tasmania.
O’Byrne then complains of being smeared over his union membership by Liberal senator Eric Abetz. He has a message for the conservative.
The union movement in Australia has done more in a single day in my view than Senator Eric Abetz has done in his career. Senator Eric Abetz, all the best to you.
Updated
Liberals most likely to take 13-seat majority
The most likely result at the end of tonight would be 13 seats for the Liberal Party, eight seats for Labor, and one for the Greens, with three seats likely to still be undecided at the end of tonight.
This would mean a Liberal majority government, with prospects for two additional seats.
The Liberal Party looks set to retain three seats each in Bass, Braddon and Lyons, along with two in Denison and two in Franklin.
Labor has retained at least two seats in Lyons, Denison and Franklin, as well as one seat in Bass and Braddon.
The last seat in Bass could go to either Greens MP Andrea Dawkins or a second Labor candidate.
The last seat in Braddon could go to either a fourth Liberal MP or a second Labor candidate (likely their sitting MP Joan Rylah).
The last seat in Franklin could go to either Greens MP Rosalie Woodruff or a third Liberal candidate.
Here’s a bit more from Jacqui Lambie:
"We got done over by cash. We just didn't have it." @JacquiLambie concedes defeat in 2018 Tasmanian state election #tasvotes #politas pic.twitter.com/XGnTspBzcz
— ABC News (@abcnews) March 3, 2018
Jacqui Lambie concedes defeat
Jacqui Lambie has conceded defeat on behalf of all of her candidates in Bass, Braddon, and Lyons. She said they lost “not because of our lack of trying, not because of who we are. But because we got done over by cash.”
Nothing went wrong during our campaign. I can tell you now there’s no scandalous stuff about the bloody Jacqui Lambie Network.
I tell you what when it comes out in the next two weeks about whose been taking donations from who, guess who’s going to be squeaky clean.
The Greens, on current numbers, look like they’ll only hold two seats, down from their current three. Greens senator Nick McKim concedes there has been a swing against the party. But he’s not conceding picking up a seat in Lyons of Bass.
“It looks like there is a swing against us on a statewide basis,” McKim said.
About 52% of the vote has now been counted.
The Liberals vote is fairly stable. They’re down slightly, about 2.1%, but ABC the election analyst, Antony Green, said the swing away from them is not enough. They look likely to have secured a majority, although it’s too early to call.
There is nothing in the numbers to suggest they will fall below 13.
Rosalie Woodruff, a Greens candidate in Franklin, looks a solid chance to have retained her seat. She tells the ABC the situation looks “promising”.
But federal Greens senator, Nick McKim, said it’s too early to call. There’s a lot of leakage from Will Hodgman’s vote to other parties, McKim says.
We’re getting information that there’s a reasonably steady trickle from Hodgman’s number one vote to Rosalie
Updated
If there any blog newcomers confused by Hare-Clark and its use of quotas, I’ll just re-post part of an earlier explainer from our election guru, Ben Raue.
Members represent one of five electorates (the same electorates used for federal elections in Tasmania), and each electorate elects five members.
The voting system is broadly similar to the Senate system, but with some important differences.
Each candidate needs a “quota” of just over one-sixth of the total vote (about 16.7%) to win a seat. If a candidate has more than a quota, their surplus votes will be passed on according to their preferences.
The lowest-polling candidates will be excluded in order of their vote count and have their votes distributed as preferences. If there aren’t enough votes to fill the final quotas, the seats will go to the last-standing candidates.
Liberals likely to take three seats in three northern electorates
If you want to know if the Liberal Party will retain their majority, watch Bass, Braddon and Lyons. If they can win three seats in each of these electorates, and maintain at least two each in the southern districts, they will be home.
The Liberals are well over 50% in all three of these electorates, which would give them three each.
We don’t have enough votes counted to call the election for the Liberal Party, but we’re heading in that direction.
Updated
ABC election analyst, Antony Green, has called nine seats for the Liberals and seven for Labor, so far. The Greens are yet to secure a seat.
The Liberal Party is defending four seats in Braddon.
Senior Liberal MPs Jeremy Rockliff and Adam Brooks are each sitting on a quota, or close to it. Rockliff has a surplus of 0.47 quota. The party has a total vote of 3.37 quotas, which would make it hard for both of their other MPs to win.
Labor is on 1.55 quotas, with Labor candidate Anita Dow on 0.55 quota and sitting Labor MP Shane Broad on 0.42 quota. One of these two should definitely win, with the other one competing with a Liberal MP for the final seat.
Labor is closer to a second quota than the Liberal Party is to four quotas, but it’s entirely possible that the Liberal Party could still win four seats if their vote splits evenly between their third and fourth MPs, and Labor’s preferences concentrates on one of their two leading candidates.
Adam Morton, our reporter on the ground in Hobart, has just given us a bit more context to the situation in Denison.
Labor was banking in the final days of the campaign on winning three seats in the Hobart-based seat as its best hope of keeping the Liberals from the magic number of 13 MPs to form a majority government.
It hoped that some of the issues that dominated the final days of the campaign - the Liberals’ guns policy and refusal to disclose how much funding it had received from gaming interests - might give them momentum in the state’s most left-leaning seat to push it above three quotas.
That hasn’t happened yet.
Hobart mayor, Sue Hickey, is running as a star Liberal candidate in Denison. She’s just said she’s confident she’ll take a seat. But in an interview on ABC, Hickey has said she was surprised to learn about the changes to gun laws proposed by the Liberal government.
That’s put Liberal senator Eric Abetz in a tricky spot. He’s asked whether the changes are policy, and if so, why wouldn’t Hickey have been informed?
Abetz says she probably wasn’t told because she isn’t in a rural seat.
Abetz said the changes were policy, and he doesn’t know why Hickey said what she said.
At the end of the day, the National Fire Arms agreement is sacrosanct and it will not be undermined. The Premier has said that on a number of occasions and that remains our very firm position. This is about a little tweak and I can’t blame the Greens for trying to get overexcited about it and the same with Labor.
Cassy O'Connor likely to be re-elected in Denison, despite Greens drop
We’re finally getting some real data from Denison.
Greens leader Cassy O’Connor should win re-election, although there’s been a big drop in the Greens vote.
Labor and Liberal are each polling over two quotas, although it’s not clear who will win Labor’s second seat.
Labor candidate Ella Haddad is currently just ahead of incumbent Labor MP Madeleine Ogilvie, while their colleague Scott Bacon leads on 1.1 quotas.
Early lead for @EllaforDenison as possibly the second Labor MP in Tasmania's Denison electorate. I'm looking forward to @MaddyOgilvie's retirement. #Tasvotes 🇦🇺 #politas pic.twitter.com/XVY4I9srwG
— Alex Guibord 🌈🦄 (@AlexGuibord) March 3, 2018
Updated
The panel on the ABC are of one mind on at least one thing: the Jacqui Lambie Network has “flamed out”. They’re unlikely to win a seat in Braddon, Lambie’s electorate, making them unlikely to pick up a seat elsewhere.
It’s not a huge surprise. The polling for the network has been poor throughout the campaign. Indicative support for the Jacqui Lambie Network halved to 4% in the first independent EMRS poll late last month.
Liberals poll more than 60% in Bass
Let’s zoom in on Bass.
The Liberal party is currently polling over 60% of the vote, or 3.65 quotas. Sitting Liberal MPs Peter Gutwein and Michael Ferguson are each polling well over a quota, while Sarah Courtney is on half a quota. She should win with surplus preferences from her colleagues.
Labor MP Michelle O’Byrne is on 0.95 quotas, and should win re-election.
The Greens are struggling. The party’s candidates are polling just half a quota collectively, with sitting MP Andrea Dawkins on only 0.33 quotas.
I doubt the Liberal vote will stay this high, but there is a real chance that the Greens will lose one of their three seats in Bass, either to Labor or Liberal.
Archaic laws prevent election coverage
The Mercury, a Hobart-based News Corp newspaper, was forced into this strange, jarring front page on Saturday morning. On one of its biggest news days in years, this is what the Mercury’s front page looked like:
A powerful front page protesting an archaic and ridiculous law. Good on @themercurycomau. #politas #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/hu0rtT6bLR
— Natalie Whiting (@Nat_Whiting) March 2, 2018
Why? The reason is an utterly archaic and largely pointless law, which prevents newspapers from publishing about the election on polling day.
Publishers face criminal sanctions – three months jail or a fine of $15,900 – for reporting on issues or candidates on polling day. The state’s 2004 electoral act (section 198) contains the provisions.
The Mercury’s editor, Chris Jones, said the law was pointless and must be changed.
“This ridiculous and outdated law is a direct attack on the public’s right to know,” Jones told the Australian.
“It denies voters their right to be fully informed on election day. The next parliament must repeal this bizarre law, and we will be fighting hard to ensure that happens.”
Updated
Liberals strong, Greens poor in Bass, Braddon and Lyons
The Liberal Party generally does better in the three northern and central electorates of Bass, Braddon and Lyons.
The best chance for the party to win a majority would involve them holding three seats in each of these electorates. The party is currently sitting on more than 50% in all three of these electorates, which would be enough to win a majority if the vote stays that high. The Greens are also polling poorly in these electorates, which makes it hard for them to hold their seat in Bass, or gain any extra seats.
It’s worth noting that these figures are likely to be based on rural booths, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Liberal vote drops here by the end of the night, but at the moment the figures point towards a Liberal majority government.
About 10% of the votes are counted. So far, things are looking good for the Liberals. Their vote is remaining relatively unchanged. You’ll remember that the Liberals currently hold 15 of the 25 seats, a clear majority. Holding their seats will keep them in power.
The ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, said the votes counted so far are showing poor results for the Greens, particularly in Lyons.
Tallyroom filling up #tasvotes2018 pic.twitter.com/q9xvymKPhb
— Adam Morton (@adamlmorton) March 3, 2018
Liberals look strong in Lyons
The Liberal vote is sitting on 53.4% in the large rural seat of Lyons. The Liberal vote is divided relatively evenly - their three sitting MPs have votes between 0.75 and 0.99 quotas, and look set to win re-election. Labor leader Rebecca White is on 1.26 quotas.
The final seat in Lyons looks set to be a race between Labor and the Greens. Labor looks likely to win on current numbers but most of the Labor vote is concentrated on their leader, which could make it harder for a second candidate to win.
Our man in Hobart, Adam Morton, is at the tally room. He’s just filed this update:
Something worth watching tonight: the individual vote for “name” candidates.
The random sorting of candidate’s names within each party list and ban on how-to-vote cards makes name recognition more important than elsewhere.
Here, the Liberals have a significant advantage.
Fourteen of its 15 sitting members are running again, with only Matthew Groom, the former Growth, Energy and Environment Minister, not re-contesting his seat.
By comparison, Labor has only five sitting candidates running, having lost former premier Lara Giddings and former deputy premier David Llewellyn to retirement.
This has been noticeable in the campaign. The Liberals have been able to call on a handful of frontbenchers to sell their message - including Hodgman, Peter Gutwein, Michael Ferguson and Jeremy Rockliff – while Labor has largely relied on White and treasury spokesman Scott Bacon.
Hodgman and White are both expected to win large personal votes. Hodgman received more than two quotas in his own right four years ago.
New “name” candidates known to Tasmanians worth keeping an eye on include Hobart mayor Sue Hickey (Liberal, expected to take Groom’s seat in Denison), former Burnie mayor Anita Dow(running for Labor in Braddon), former ABC broadcaster Tim Cox (Labor in Denison) and Glamorgan Spring Bay mayor and high-profile former businessman Michael Kent (the Jacqui Lambie Network in Lyons).
Updated
Greens likely to hold in Franklin
Let’s look at the seat of Franklin. The Liberal Party is on 2.93 quotas, Labor is on 1.66 quotas and the Greens are on 1.15 quotas.
When you break the vote down by candidate, most of the Liberal vote is concentrated on Will Hodgman (2.15 quotas), with both of his running mates sitting on about 0.3 quotas. The Liberals will probably win a second seat, but a lot will depend on how strongly Hodgman’s preferences will flow.
Most of the Greens vote is concentrated behind sitting MP Rosalie Woodruff (which is the normal pattern for the Greens), so she is currently on track to win.
Labor’s David O’Byrne is on 0.74 quotas, and looks likely to take over the first Labor seat. Two other Labor candidates are on about 0.3 quotas – they’d need the Labor vote to pick up to win a second Labor seat.
Updated
Will Hodgman set to hold seat easily
It’s far too early to predict most seats, but there’s a few Liberal MPs who are polling well over a quota. Peter Gutwein is on 1.7 quotas in Bass, Jeremy Rockliff is on 1.4 quotas in Braddon, Mark Shelton is on 1.4 quotas in Lyons, and Liberal leader Will Hodgman is on 1.9 quotas in Franklin.
All of these MPs will likely win re-election, and the party will be hoping that these preferences will reliably flow to fellow Liberals to elect their colleagues.
Updated
What does the most recent polling tell us?
The early votes are starting to trickle in from booths across the state, but we’ve only counted about 2% of the vote, so it’s still too early to predict trends with certainty.
While we wait for things to firm up, let’s look at what the polling has told us in the weeks prior.
Election analysts have frequently warned that polls can be less reliable in Tasmanian state elections than would otherwise be the case. Keeping that in mind, the first independent poll, published last month, was a boon for the Liberals.
The EMRS poll found support for the Liberals at 46%. That put them well ahead of Labor on 34% and the Greens on 12%.
It had Hodgman at 48% for preferred premier compared with White’s 41%.
Updated
We have a tiny number of votes reported in the rural northern seats of Bass, Braddon and Lyons.
The Liberal party currently hold fifteen out of twenty-five seats: four in Braddon, two in Denison and three in the other electorates. They would need to hold 13 to win a majority, most likely by winning at least two seats in each electorate and a third in three electorates.
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Liberal senator Eric Abetz has just described the story about Will Hodgman promising to weaken gun laws as a “very bad beat up”. He has produced a letter, live on ABC’s coverage of the election, suggesting Labor leader Rebecca White told the Tasmanian Farmers and Graziers Association she would consult on the same issue.
It has been a very bad beat up and very sad that the journalist that ran it did not give as much prominence to Rebecca White’s overture.
Labor MP Julie Collins dismisses the stunt. She says White’s letter said she would consult, not that she would change the legislation if elected.
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Hodgman's secret plan to weaken gun laws
The dying days of the campaign dealt a damaging blow to Hodgman’s campaign.
A letter from the Hodgman government to a firearms consultation group emerged publicly on Friday, showing it had promised a weakening of the state’s gun laws.
The Liberals had not made that policy the least bit clear to the broader public.
The proposed changes include increasing the limit on gun licence durations from five to 10 years and allowing expanded access to Category C firearms, which allow sporting shooters to use rapid-fire shotguns.
Hodgman has denied the changes represent a weakening of gun laws. This is how he explained his failure to disclose the policy to the electorate:
There are a number of policies that we announce … that have particular interest to certain sections of our community, and certain organisations, and typically we’ll communicate directly with them.
The Port Arthur massacre still lingers in the minds of many in Tasmania. The news is unlikely to have won Hodgman any friends.
Hodgman later revealed that only about 100 of the Liberals’ 300 election policies had been made public.
Rebecca White and Labor's campaign
Rebecca White has breathed new life into Labor since she took over as leader in March last year. White, at 35, would become the youngest premier in the state’s history. She faces an uphill battle to increase Labor’s foothold from seven to 13 seats. But a minority government is a very real possibility, though earlier polling has suggested it may be out of reach.
White has pinned much of her hopes on a promise to remove pokies from Tasmania’s pubs and hotels. Tasmania would be the first state to do so. It’s a pledge that has pitted her against powerful interests in Tasmania, including gambling giant the Federal Group.
Labor has also promised to inject $560m of funding into the state’s health system, a promise trumped by the Liberals offering of $757m over six years.
Health is my number 1 priority. Labor will invest $12 million to upgrade our regional hospitals across Tasmania. Including $2.5m in Oatlands #politas #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/Uzdi0bjzJj
— Rebecca White (@bec_white) March 1, 2018
White has also campaigned on investment in public education, affordable housing, and for “honest government”.
White, a sixth generation Tasmanian, has spent much of her professional career in politics. She was a staffer to the Labor MP for Denison, Duncan Kerr, and then the Tasmanian senator Carol Brown. She won her place in the house of assembly in 2010, in the seat of Lyons.
This election is a referendum on fairness
— Rebecca White (@bec_white) March 1, 2018
For patients waiting for healthcare
For free public education
For people over profits
For affordable housing
For women’s reproductive rights
For upholding the Tasmanian brand
For honest government
For our future - vote Labor #politas
Just a bit more on the campaign run by the Liberals. It has been aided by a vast advertising campaign, which has saturated Liberal messaging across local media. Where has the money come from to sustain such a significant spend? Well, it’s a critical question. Unfortunately, both parties do not need to disclose election funding until 2019.
What is known is that Labor promise to remove pokies from pubs and hotels angered some wealthy and powerful groups within Tasmania. The Greens say the money has come from the gambling industry. Labor sources estimate the Liberal party and hospitality industry would have collectively spent $5m on advertising.
Federal Labor MP Julie Collins, speaking on ABC News, has just had this to say about the spend:
I have never seen expenditure like this before. I have been involved in campaigns since 1988. I have never seen this type of expenditure. I think we were outspent by 10 to one, quite frankly. I have never seen the amount of advertising. I have never seen people so annoyed by it.
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Will Hodgman and the Liberals campaign
Unsurprisingly, given Tasmania’s history with minority governments, the Liberal leader, Will Hodgman, has run a campaign focused on stability and continuity.
He’s pitched the Liberals as the only party with a realistic chance of achieving a majority.
For strong, stable majority Government, please #Vote1To5Liberal on Saturday. #politas #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/PZl00o0eJm
— Will Hodgman MP (@WillHodgman) March 2, 2018
The campaign, at its core, has kept to the fundamentals of state electioneering. Jobs, jobs and jobs.
Hodgman has made much of his government’s ability to create 10,000 in its four years in power.
Hodgman’s message is simple: Why risk tempering the strong economic performance achieved by his government?
Just have a read of the first two paragraphs of Hodgman’s direct pitch to voters, made in the Launceston Examiner earlier this month.
At next month’s election Tasmanians have a crucial choice about the future of our state. It’s a choice between a strong Liberal team, with a plan to take Tasmania to the next level, or turning back to the instability of minority government.
It’s a plan to continue the growth in our economy, creating more jobs. It’s a plan to invest more into education, health and essential services - which we are only able to do because my Government has worked hard to get the budget back in balance.
A re-elected majority Liberal Govt will hit the ground running with our plan to take Tasmania to the next level. Our 100 Day Plan details the immediate actions we will take to grow the economy and create more jobs https://t.co/mHfcAr0g3J #politas #tasvotes pic.twitter.com/S9QiVtWseK
— Will Hodgman MP (@WillHodgman) March 1, 2018
The three party leaders were all smiles as they cast their ballots in front of the cameras a little earlier this morning.
Jacqui Lambie pessimistic about chances
One of the wildcards at the outset of this election was the Jacqui Lambie Network. Their hopes – always slight in the Hare-Clark system – have deteriorated as the campaign went on. Polling puts them at almost no chance to achieve a seat. Jacqui Lambie has just appeared on ABC News. She was fairly pessimistic about the party’s chances tonight.
She says the campaign was “difficult”.
It has been difficult. Going against all those millions of dollars, with a couple of hundred thousand dollars, you are kidding yourself. You can see that in the last few weeks when they actually put the propaganda out there, they throw everything they can at the newspapers and when it comes to money, you cannot buy the Jacqui Lambie network
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Hare-Clark's intricacies explained
Tasmania’s lower house is elected using the Hare-Clark voting system.
Members represent one of five electorates (the same electorates used for federal elections in Tasmania), and each electorate elects five members.
The voting system is broadly similar to the Senate system, but with some important differences.
There is no ‘above-the-line’ voting, so you have to vote for individual candidates, not just for a party.
Candidates within each party’s column are randomly sorted, with different ballot papers giving different orders. This (combined with a ban on how-to-vote cards) prevents parties from endorsing a ticket - a party’s votes scatter amongst the different candidates.
It is standard practice in Tasmanian state elections for each individual candidate to run their own campaign, and on occasion an incumbent may lose their seat to another candidate from the same party.
Each candidate needs a “quota” of just over one-sixth of the total vote (about 16.7%) to win a seat. If a candidate has more than a quota, their surplus votes will be passed on according to their preferences. The lowest-polling candidates will be excluded in order of their vote count and have their votes distributed as preferences. If there aren’t enough votes to fill the final quotas, the seats will go to the last-standing candidates.
A quick update from our correspondent in Tasmania, Adam Morton:
Greetings from the Tasmanian Electoral Commission tally room at Hobart’s Hotel Grand Chancellor.
I’m reliably informed Tasmania is the last place in the country that maintains the quaint tradition of an election night hub. The leaders of the three biggest parties – Liberal premier, Will Hodgman, Labor’s Rebecca White and the Greens’ Cassy O’Connor – are expected here later tonight, joining MPs, political staff, the media and members of the public looking for a bit of live democracy to fill their Saturday night.
But for now it is a lightly populated room mostly ABC and Sky News journalists and their political guests preparing to fill the first hour or so of talk before the meaningful numbers start rolling in.
Early crowd patiently waiting for the 0s on the board to become 1s, 2s etc #tasvotes2018 pic.twitter.com/fYhpx2ko6M
— Adam Morton (@adamlmorton) March 3, 2018
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Tasmanian politics 101
We’ve got some time before the early results start to flow in. While we wait, let’s go back over the absolute basics of Tasmanian politics for those mainlanders who may not be up to speed.
Today’s elections involve Tasmania’s 25-seat House of Assembly. For the mathematically-challenged (don’t worry, I share your pain), that means either party needs 13 seats for a clear majority. The house is constituted by five members in each of the state’s five electorates: Bass, Braddon, Denison, Franklin and Lyons.
The nature of the Hare-Clark voting system makes achieving a majority difficult for either of the major parties. That made the 2014 election fairly extraordinary. Liberal leader Will Hodgman achieved a landslide victory, dislodging Labor after 16 years, and winning 15 of the 25 seats.
Labor are considered a long shot of achieving a clear majority today. They currently have seven seats.
The likelihood of a hung parliament – ever-present in Hare-Clark – brings us to the Greens.
The Greens, currently led by Cassy O’Connor, have traditionally been a force in Tasmanian politics. But both major parties have ruled out governing in partnership with the Greens in 2018.
Either Labor or the Liberals could govern in minority. The state has much experience with minority governments. Indeed, there have only been five majority governments in the eight Tasmanian elections since 1989.
So, an early warning for those of you following along at home. We may not know the final result for several days.
That said, I covered the last election in the Australian Capital Territory, which also uses Hare-Clark, and we had a result by evening’s end. Here’s hoping.
We’ve had some tragic news early on election night. The former Tasmanian Liberal attorney-general, Vanessa Goodwin, has died after a battle with brain cancer.
Her death will cast a shadow over the rest of the night, regardless of the result.
Goodwin was diagnosed with multiple brain tumours early last year. The diagnosis was terminal and she was forced to resign from cabinet.
Goodwin was a long-time friend of the premier, Will Hodgman, who was visibly distraught and emotional when he announced her diagnosis to the public early last year.
Hodgman met with her this morning to say his goodbyes. He tweeted just before 5pm on Saturday, describing Goodwin as “brave” and “a close friend and one of my greatest supports”.
So sad we have lost our Vanessa, after such a brave fight. I’m glad I was able to say my goodbyes this morning to /a close friend and one of my greatest supports. Thanks to the wonderful staff at the Gibson Ward, and thanks for everything VG. I’ll miss you xxx
— Will Hodgman MP (@WillHodgman) March 3, 2018
Goodwin, aged 48, had a career researching criminology and law, and worked with Tasmanian police for more than a decade. It made her a good fit for the attorney-general role. She
Her family were heavily involved in Tasmanian politics. Goodwin’s mother was Edyth Langham-Goodwin, a long-time Tasmanian Liberal figure. Her mother also died of brain cancer in 2016.
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Live coverage as Tasmania decides
Hello, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the Tasmanian state election.
The polls have just closed across the state’s five electorates, and counting will soon begin. After five weeks of solid campaigning and saturation advertising, particularly from the Liberals, we’ve finally reached the pointy end.
Will the incumbent Liberals manage to achieve a second consecutive majority government in Tasmania? Or will Labor’s Rebecca White defy the polls and push the one-term Liberal government from office.
Stick with us as we watch the results flow in throughout the evening.
Our Tasmanian-based reporter, Adam Morton, will be filing regular updates, as will our election guru, Ben Raue, who will help us navigate the vagaries of the Hare-Clark voting system.
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