BMI Research has struck an optimistic but cautious outlook for the metals market in 2026. A British firm expects most minerals and metals to "average higher than in 2025," as tighter supply and robust demand from sectors tied to net-zero materialize.
As clarified in the note "Mining and Metals Key Themes For 2026: Global Economic Stability to Drive Gains," BMI forecasts that "the global economy [will] stabilize with easing trade frictions," helping to underpin commodity consumption.
Tariffs in the Rear View Mirror
A key factor, as BMI sees it, is diminishing tariff uncertainty. The firm believes it peaked in August 2025 and, aside from occasional flare-ups, will decline in 2026.
This easing is significant for the industry. Less risk around cross-border trade encourages investment, supports offtake planning, and allows producers to operate with more predictable cost structures.
Still, copper stands out as a potential flashpoint. BMI highlights that the U.S. Secretary of Commerce must issue an update on the domestic copper market by June 30, 2026. The update will determine whether to implement a progressive universal duty from 2027. Thus, some tariff risk for the red metal still lingers.
BMI also expects the accelerated momentum in mergers and acquisitions of recent years to continue. The race to secure minerals critical to clean-energy supply chains is intensifying. Miners and metals producers pursue deals that expand their exposure to copper, lithium, rare earths, and other energy-transition inputs.
Alongside large-scale capital expenditure programs, firms are increasingly favoring phased developments and brownfield expansions as they navigate cost pressures and regulatory shifts.
Risks and Limits
Despite the constructive profile, BMI stresses the downside risk. The firm expects the U.S. dollar index (DXY) to stabilize in the 95-100 range, capping upside for metals. For gold specifically, BMI expects the metal to remain elevated early in 2026, but to "fall below $4,000/oz" later in the year as global monetary easing loses momentum.
China introduces another major constraint. BMI forecasts Mainland China's real GDP growth to slow from 5% in 2025 to 4.5% in 2026. Property market weakness is "set to remain a drag on industrial metals price growth."
Still, firm notes a persistent policy support as an offset to boost the demand for copper, aluminum, lithium, and nickel.
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