Tanzanians are voting on Wednesday in a general election that looks set to keep President Samia Suluhu Hassan in power. But with opposition leaders jailed and political freedoms under pressure, the vote could mark another step back for democracy in one of East Africa’s more stable nations.
Hassan is running for her first full term at the head of Chama Cha Mapinduzi – Swahili for “Party of the Revolution” – which has ruled the country since its independence from Britain in 1961. The party has never lost a national election.
She came to power in 2021 after the sudden death of then-president John Magufuli, under whom she served as vice president.
Her main rival, opposition leader Tundu Lissu, has been imprisoned since April on treason charges. His Chadema party, along with another key opposition movement, ACT-Wazalendo, is barred from the ballot.
Another prominent contender and ruling party defector, Luhaga Mpina, has also been excluded.
That leaves Hassan facing only minor challengers in what analysts describe as Tanzania’s least competitive election in decades.
Many citizens had wanted a more genuine contest, Aloyce Nchunga, a political analyst in Tanzania, told RFI.
“If you look through comments on social media, you can still see that Tanzanians really wanted there to be a strong opposition ... with real back-and-forth and genuine competition, like in past elections,” Nchunga said.
He recalled that in 2015, when Hassan was running as Magufuli’s VP candidate, the ruling party won one of its narrowest victories – clinching just 58 percent of the vote.
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Fading hopes for reform
When Hassan took office, many hoped for a gentler, more open style of leadership. But observers say political space has only tightened since.
“The Samia Hassan presidency started out with a lot of anticipation of opening of democratic space after the Magufuli period,” Alex Vines, who directs the Africa Programme at Chatham House, told RFI.
“But in fact, there have been more disappearances and incarcerations under President Samia than there was under Magufuli. This is the first time she’s tested by the electorate.”
Hassan, from Zanzibar – a semi-autonomous archipelago off Tanzania’s coast – comes from a political minority within the country’s broader landscape. “There is more diversity by gender within the political system, if not from political pluralism, given the repression,” Vines said.
That diversity is built into the system: the constitution reserves 113 parliamentary seats for women, increasing female representation. In total, there are 264 seats up for grabs on Wednesday – 214 from the mainland and 50 from Zanzibar.
But critics say those gains in representation mask a broader erosion of civic freedoms.
Reports by UN experts and Human Rights Watch – which the government strongly denies – describe abductions and attacks on activists, journalists and religious leaders.
Hassan has said her administration is committed to human rights and ordered an investigation into abductions last year, though its findings have not been made public.
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Zanzibar tensions
The islands of Zanzibar, long a political bellwether for the mainland, often mirror Tanzania’s national divides. Security forces and election staff began voting there on Tuesday, a day ahead of the rest of the country.
Nearly one million voters are registered, and past elections have been marked by fraud allegations and unrest.
In 2020, the opposition denounced massive fraud before being forced into a unity government.
Zanzibar's main opposition candidate, Othman Masoud Othman, told the French news agency AFP the Zanzibar Electoral Commission was allowing ineligible voters to take part in early voting, describing it as “early stealing”.
“We have scrutinised the voters registry... There are people who are deceased, quite a number of them,” Othman said.
Opposition officials also say around 50,000 people have been added to the voter roll for early voting, which should have covered only about 7,000 security and election staff.
The tense atmosphere in Zanzibar adds to wider fears that Wednesday’s vote could deepen mistrust in Tanzania’s democratic process.
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Economic stakes
Tanzania, rich in gold and gas and home to a growing tourism industry, has one of East Africa’s largest economies. The International Monetary Fund forecasts growth of 6 percent this year.
Hassan has campaigned on stability and development, pointing to major infrastructure projects such as new rail links and hydropower dams.
Her government has also pursued new investment deals in mining and energy, including a $1.2 billion uranium project and plans for a liquefied natural gas terminal led by Shell and Equinor.
But political tensions have unsettled some investors, while negotiations on large-scale gas exports have stalled.
Economists warn that without a more open political environment, the benefits of growth may remain unevenly shared.
