Today’s best bet, by Chris Cook
Here’s another entry for the file marked ‘There’s Always An Explanation When A Good Horse Is Beaten On The Flat’. Aidan O’Brien reports an issue with Caravaggio’s shoes may account for his disappointing effort in Sunday’s Prix Maurice de Gheest.
“We think he’s not getting proper traction when he races,” the trainer is quoted as saying in today’s Racing Post. “Before he ran in the July Cup, we put on different shoes with rubber between his feet and the shoes. We’ll give him a week to 10 days before reviewing the situation.” O’Brien added that his three-year-old had returned “very sore in front” from Deauville, where the ground was reportedly no quicker than good.
Caravaggio looked so impressive in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, justifying previous descriptions of him as the fastest horse O’Brien had trained. But he has since taken on older rivals twice and been unplaced each time, finishing strongly after slow starts on both occasions.
Sunday’s race was a step up to six and a half furlongs but perhaps Caravaggio is going to need further even than that. To these eyes, he seemed to struggle to make any headway through the middle section of the Maurice de Gheest. And it did seem at the time that the Ascot race was rather set up for him by the scorching pace Harry Angel set. The July Cup was run at a more sustainable pace, with the result that those in front didn’t fold fast enough for Caravaggio.
Turning to today’s racing, the thing that’s folding fastest of all is the price about Bulas Bell (3.15) in the stayers’ handicap at Catterick. Having opened at 15-2 last night, Grant Tuer’s runner is down to 100-30 for the six-runner race in which there have been no non-runners, so someone fancies her.
I do, too, despite her 13-length defeat at York 10 days ago on her seasonal reappearance. For the last two years, she has improved 20lb or more on her comeback run and, while that is not to be expected this time because the York effort was respectable, I do think she’ll do better at this track where she won on her last visit in 2015.
I hadn’t noticed, having had some time off, but the Post points out that Graham Lee, her jockey, is in stonking form just now, with 10 winners at a 23% strike-rate in the past fortnight.
There’s still a bit of 3-1 about Italian Riviera (4.45), another course and distance winner who should also be sharper for a recent outing. Ken Slack’s horse, who improved over hurdles last winter after joining him from Ireland, ran on to be second at Thirsk last month and will appreciate this stiffer track and easier surface.
At Leicester, I like 9-2 about Northern Law (3.30), a well-related John Quinn juvenile now setting out in nurseries. A bit of cut should help and he has the useful David Egan aboard for the first time, taking a bit of weight off.
Tips for all Tuesday races
Leicester
2.00 Surfa Rosa 2.30 Soaring Spirits 3.00 She Believes 3.30 Northern Law 4.00 Count Simon 4.30 Peach Melba
Catterick
2.15 Amazing Rock 2.45 Your Gifted (nb) 3.15 Bulas Belle 3.45 Melaniemillie 4.15 Mango Chutney 4.45 Italian Riviera 5.15 Jack Blane
Nottingham
5.05 Book Of Dreams 5.35 Grimeford Lane 6.05 Zeelander 6.35 Jule In The Crown 7.05 Sheepscar Lad 7.35 Wasm 8.05 Mr C
Chelmsford
5.50 Sardenya 6.20 Mail Order 6.50 Mutarabby 7.20 Glittering Jewel (nap) 7.50 Perfect Spy 8.20 Estrella Eria 8.50 Wild Flower
