Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
The Grand National field has been finalised this morning and, since none of the top 40 have been withdrawn, the four reserves have all been eliminated (not as chilling a fate as it sounds). And so this seems a good time to praise the fine judgement of the Pipe family, who have got Soll to sneak into the race at the foot of the weights.
This horse came to them last summer on a rating which would not have been high enough to get into a National. They got him to win a race in time for his rating to be raised to a point that has just barely proved high enough.
Then, once the weights were set, they sent him to Newbury to win again. The effect of that was that, of all the horses set to carry 10st 2lb in the National, he would be the first to be admitted to the race because his rating was now the highest.
This is not just some piece of good fortune. Martin Pipe outlined that part of the plan in my hearing at the Grand National weights lunch. And lo, Soll has made the cut for the National while two other horses also given 10st 2lb have been eliminated.
It’s not been the ideal preparation. With a big, fragile horse like Soll, I’m sure the Pipes would rather have run him only once since the New Year and not given him a hard time. But in the situation in which they found themselves, they have done a tremendous job getting him into the race and at least, if he’s good enough, he’ll now have a chance to show it.
Aintree was watered last night, including the National course, to the extent of 4mm to 5mm all round, and we’ll see today what effect that has on race-times. It looked fair to me yesterday but, as usual with Aintree, horses generally needed a bit of pace to get involved and plodders were exposed.
I’ve talked through my tips for today’s TV races here and tips for all today’s races are here. I’m really surprised that Carraig Mor (2.50) is as big as 14-1 for the novice chase. I’ve pointed out in that TV racing guide that Alan King has an excellent record at this meeting over the years, suggesting he is better than most at the tricky business of sustaining a horse’s form this late into the season.
Poor old Sire De Grugy (3.25) has drifted to 9-1 in the Melling Chase, making him an each-way proposition, which I never expected. His jumping fell apart here two years ago and perhaps that will happen again but I think that would be odds-against. He’s not washed up yet.
Accidents will happen in a race like the Topham but, again, I’m surprised you can get 10-1 about Monetaire (4.05) for that race. I’m encouraged to read in Gerald Delamere’s excellent Racing Post column that this race has previously been won by four horses who had been runner-up in the Cheltenham Festival race which Monetaire was so unlucky to lose last month. (I think he was unlucky. Others may disagree)
Finally, even if you don’t have a bet on the Sefton at 4.40pm, do watch it because Minella Rocco and Roi Des Francs both look like being terrific chasers in future. Gold Cup aspirations must be held (very, very quietly) for both by their connections at this early stage.
Tipping competition, day four
Our winners so far:
Tuesday
Suprise Vendor 13-2
Some Article 20-1
Final Countdown 12-1
Wednesday
Mr Gallivanter 6-1
Deuce Again 16-1
Peace Prize 20-1
Thursday
Silviniaco Conti 7-4
On The Fringe 5-2
Surf And Turf 33-1
And our leader is …
Slicker66 +31.75
… who embellished a good week with Silviniaco Conti. But Toptrapper (+27.75) is hunting him up, after picking that one AND Surf And Turf and there are a handful of other Surf And Turfers now on +25. Some good scores: kingklynch +25, Shrewdette +25, factormax +25, 16heathermac01 +25, Elveden +25, waltersobchak +23.75, jakebuckfast +14.75, JahLion +10.75, dean055 +10.75, TL127 +10.75, Mulldog +8, wemeanyounoharm +8, tanias +8, melonk +8, Copshaw +8.
For today’s thrilling climax, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.50 Aintree, 3.25 Aintree, 4.05 Aintree.
This week’s prize is a £50 bet on Saturday’s Grand National, kindly offered by William Hill. If, on Friday, you think you may have won, stand by your email as we will need to establish contact quickly in order to arrange your bet.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -9.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day (TODAY).
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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