Why Winx has a better shot at the top this year, by Greg Wood
The annual World’s Best Racehorse lunch is an occasion for looking back rather than forward, and rarely one that serves up any real suspense. The “finishing order” yesterday – Arrogate ahead of Winx, with Gun Runner and Cracksman joint-third – was almost identical to the rankings that had been available for inspection online since the middle of November, and the only real puzzle is why it is still called the “World’s Best Racehorse” when the “World’s Best Performance by a Racehorse” would be a good deal closer to the truth.
In terms of a triumph over adversity in a Group One race, I can’t remember witnessing anything to match Arrogate’s win in the Dubai World Cup last year. He handed a long, easy lead to Gun Runner – whose subsequent exploits proved him to be an outstanding dirt horse in his own right – and ran wide all the way on horrible ground. Arrogate then surged through the field in little more than a furlong and closed down Gun Runner with ease with almost a furlong to spare, a performance which was enough to make him the highest-rated dirt horse in Timeform history, and placed him joint-fifth on their all-time list, ahead of the likes of Dancing Brave and Shergar.
But that, of course, was as good as it got for Arrogate, who was soundly beaten in the final three starts of his career. Winx, on the other hand, spent the whole of 2017 winning race after race, just as she had in 2016. She won nine races, including six at Grade One level, and extended her winning streak to 22 when she took the Cox Plate for the third year in a row in late October.
Which of them is truly the “best” racehorse? Even if you accept that it is possible to make meaningful comparisons between horses that race on dirt and turf – and personally, I’m not sure that you can – it still comes down to your definition of “best”. Does it depend solely on the highest individual rating. Or should it factor in the number and spread of top-level wins through the year, or even – from a punter’s point of view – which horse has offered the most reliable chance of a payout?
The organisers of Tuesday’s ceremony take a very narrow view of what makes a horse the best of the year, which counts against an Australian-trained horse like Winx because she has a relatively limited field of opponents to beat in order to nudge her rating any higher than its already very impressive 132. If she could run and win at Royal Ascot in the summer, next year’s award would be as good as bagged.
There was no further news yesterday on the chance that Winx will be sent to the northern hemisphere later this year, but John Gosden reported that Cracksman could start his campaign in the desert with a run in the $6m Sheema Classic on World Cup night at Meydan.
Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Donald McCain’s resurgence has been one of the stories of this winter and the Cheshire trainer, who said at the weekend he was doing the job with more confidence than ever before, can get a double at Catterick.
His Pinch Of Ginger (1.55) was a controversial winner at Bangor last time, when there was some trouble with the photo-finish and his main rival was demoted to second. Still, the chestnut finished strongly and it’s easy to see him being suited by this return to three miles, with cheekpieces on to improve his focus and hopefully get him jumping a bit better. Odds of 4-1 are tempting about a progressive type, a points winner now having just his third start over fences.
McCain’s other chance comes in the last, in which he fields Derrynane (4.05). This was a really useful bumper horse in Ireland who has so far done the square root of not much over hurdles. But this is only his second handicap and his first came all the way back in early October, when the yard was faring much less well.
If what Derrynane needs is a handicap on soft ground, he gets that chance here and an improved showing would be no surprise. He’s 100-30 in a weak-looking heat.
The ex-Aidan O’Brien Mount Wellington (3.45) may be the pick of the Lingfield card, carrying a penalty in his novice race. He should know more about all-weather racing this time and is well up to winning again. Henry Spiller, for whom he was making his debut when scoring at Wolves, fields two others in the race. Mount Wellington is available at 9-2.
The nap is King Of Nepal (7.15), a 6-4 shot at Kempton tonight. A course and distance winner, he needed his Newcastle reappearance in December but scored decisively at Wolves on Boxing Day and is only 4lb higher now.
I’m afraid Exeter’s card has been abandoned due to false patches of ground.
Kelso 12.45 Un Guet Apens 1.15 Seldom Inn (nb) 1.45 Whitsundays 2.20 Very First Time 2.55 Cool Mix 3.30 Hitman Fred 4.05 Shantaluze
Warwick 12.55 Night Of Glory 1.25 Sensulano 2.00 Gardiners Hill 2.35 Itsnonofurbusiness (nap) 3.10 Grandturgeon 3.45 Not Normal
Southwell 1.05 Master Of Song 1.35 Cool Spirit 2.10 Pearl Acclaim 2.45 Epitaph 3.20 Helen Sherbet 3.55 Zaeem
Chelmsford 5.55 Our Kim 6.30 Glories 7.00 Ascot Day 7.30 Mambo Dancer 8.00 Celtic Artisan 8.30 No More Thrills 9.00 Espresso Freddo
