Monday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I had a quick word with Eddie O’Leary this morning, just to confirm that next week’s target for Samcro hasn’t changed. He was clear, as he has been for weeks, that the intention is to run the star novice hurdler in the Ballymore, barring extreme ground conditions. “It would have to be brutally heavy,” he said, before Samcro’s owners would even begin to consider running him in the Supreme.
I was asking only because of an interesting betting story related to Samcro. Bet365 finally brought themselves into line with other firms this morning, cutting the horse to 5-2 in their Supreme market, which has been ‘non runner, no bet’ since 9 January.
In late January, they were offering 5-1 about Samcro in the Supreme, which one Irish journalist thought was “insane” because the horse was sure to be so much shorter if he actually lined up for the race. On 27 January, they doubled those odds to 10-1 and for the last six days they’ve been 14-1 while other ‘non runner, no bet’ firms were a fraction of that.
Some punters have been tempted, while knowing perfectly well that Samcro was unlikely to run in the Supreme. Tony Calvin pointed out the anomalous 14-1 on Racing UK on Friday. Oddly, Samcro’s odds in Betfair’s exchange market (‘all in, run or not’) for the Supreme have been shortening, to the point where he has been layed this morning at around 8-1. I imagine some of those who got 14-1 have taken the chance to lay him at shorter.
Dr Richard Newland 60% (5)
Peter Bowen 40% (5)
Paul Nicholls 30% (30)
Brian Ellison 30% (27)
Alan King 28% (25)
Sue Smith 25% (12)
Warren Greatrex 25% (8)
Nicky Henderson 23% (22)
Colin Tizzard 20% (20)
Nick Williams 20% (5)
Dan Skelton 18% (28)
Harry Fry 18% (11)
Oliver Sherwood 17% (18)
Gary Moore 16% (25)
Kim Bailey 15% (13)
Tim Vaughan 15% (13)
Donald McCain 14% (22)
Ian Williams 11% (18)
Fergal O'Brien 11% (9)
Nicky Richards 10% (10)
Ben Pauling 9% (11)
Jonjo O'Neill 8% (13)
Evan Williams 8% (13)
Philip Hobbs 7% (14)
Neil Mulholland 5% (20)
Venetia Williams 0% (18)
Nigel Twiston-Davies 0% (16)
Tom George 0% (15)
David Pipe 0% (10)
Emma Lavelle 0% (9)
Charlie Longsdon 0% (9)
Lucinda Russell 0% (8)
Kerry Lee 0% (7)
Ruth Jefferson 0% (4)
Rebecca Curtis 0% (1)
Chris Cook: There have been few racing opportunities since our last table a week ago, which is reflected in the fact that 10 trainers in this list are winnerless for the past fortnight.
Brian Ellison has been helped towards the top of the list by no fewer than five wins in jumpers' bumpers.
Most of the big-name yards are in fair form with Cheltenham on the horizon. Doubts persist about the form shown by runners from the stables of Philip Hobbs, Jonjo O'Neill and Venetia Williams.
Each Monday through the core jumps season, we’re monitoring the relative success of 35 major jumps stables. The percentage figure is their win strike-rate for the last fortnight, while their total number of runners in that time is in brackets.
Postings on Twitter suggest that, after Bet365 slashed Samcro’s Supreme odds, those who’d backed him at 14s were offered the chance to cash out for a profit, equivalent to a winning bet at just over 2-1. That offer doesn’t seem to have lasted very long.
I can only imagine that Bet365 are looking at a serious liability if Samcro did happen to turn up in the Supreme and win. They haven’t responded to my requests for a comment this morning.
Could it go “brutally heavy” at Cheltenham next week? That would be most unusual for mid-March. Even after last week’s snow, the ground is no worse than soft, good to soft in places. But there is plenty of rain in the forecast for Thursday and the weekend, so watch this space.
Watching and waiting is what this last week is all about, even for connections. O’Leary was audibly nervous and hoping not to get phone calls from trainers. “If they ring this week, it can only be bad news,” he said. “Nothing else is getting on the team this week, they can only fall off it.”
A couple of potshots appeal, late on Southwell’s soft-ground jumps card today. Bardista (5.00) has little to recommend him on form but it might be worth forgiving him his flop on his handicap debut in January. Ben Pauling’s yard was going through a rotten spell at that point and didn’t have a winner in the whole month but things have since picked up.
Dropped in trip and with Daryl Jacob replacing a claiming amateur, Bardista could make a significant step forward today and 14-1 makes each-way appeal.
Queen Of The Wind (5.30) has also shortened a bit to 6-1 as she makes her handicap debut in a weak contest, dropped in distance after failing to stay at Warwick. She’s trained by Colin Tizzard, who is doing a lot better than when she was last seen in late December.
It’s not a day for confident tipping but Bernie’s Boy (8.45) seems a fair-enough nap in the last at Wolverhampton, though he’s shortened to 5-2 after a couple of non-runners. He’s already looking for his third win of the year, ran well to be second on Saturday and now has Adam Kirby aboard.
Kempton 2.00 Commanche Chieftain 2.30 Tommy Silver 3.00 Rose To Fame 3.30 Josses Hill 4.00 Mcgroarty 4.30 Peter The Mayo Man 5.00 Article Fifty
Lingfield 2.10 Skyline 2.40 Kupatana 3.10 Maestro Royal 3.45 Landin 4.15 Alberto’s Dream 4.50 Pray For A Rainbow 5.20 Finnegan’s Garden
Southwell 2.20 Good Man Hughie 2.50 Zamparelli (nb) 3.20 Cougar’s Gold 3.55 Good Man Pat 4.25 Corlay 5.00 Bardista 5.30 Queen Of The Wind
Wolverhampton 5.45 Delilah Park 6.15 Energia Flavio 6.45 American Patrol 7.15 Outlaw Torn 7.45 Celestial Spheres 8.15 Kion 8.45 Bernie’s Boy (nap)
