Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
The first thing to say is that Pat Smullen has indeed been booked to ride Cracksman in Saturday’s Irish Derby, as anticipated in this morning’s Guardian. The 40-year-old won the Curragh Classic just last year on Harzand and now has an excellent chance of making it two in a row.
Next, I’m going to mention the draw on Ascot’s straight course for what I promise will be the very last time until the next big-field handicap there, which I think will be on King George day at the end of next month. There’s a piece in today’s Racing Post in which a couple of trainers, whose charges were first home on the ‘wrong’ side, have suggested that overnight watering during the week created a bias towards those drawn low against the far rail.
Of all the trainers who have contributed to the piece, Roger Charlton strikes me as sounding most wise on the subject. “We can never know and you have to take the rough with the smooth when a draw perhaps turns out to be disadvantaged,” he says.
GoingStick readings during the week continually indicated that the ground on the stands’ side rail was the fastest, marginally ahead of the far rail with the centre lagging behind. This makes logical sense, the clerk of the course told me, because the middle of the course will tend to retain the moisture better than the edges, where the water seeps out into unwatered ground to the side of the track.
Why might the far side end up as quicker than the stands’ side, as these trainers assert? At this time of year, the grandstand casts no shadow on the track once the sun is up, the clerk says, so that can’t be the explanation. He accepts that worn ground doesn’t take watering as well as fresh ground, so that could be a factor, as more horses raced on the stands’ side in Wednesday’s big handicap than on the far side. Then again, plenty of horses raced against the far rail during the round-course races on the first two days, so that ground also ought to have been worn for the last two and a half furlongs.
In the future, I’ll be looking at horses drawn near a rail for those big-field handicaps at Ascot and worrying about the prospects of those drawn in the middle. But jockeys can always make a difference in these cases, when they steer in a different direction to the one you expected. I’m still puzzled as to why those on the stands’ side tended not to race hard against the rail last week, choosing instead to be eight to 10 feet off it. It looked like willful neglect of a potential advantage.
There’s been plenty of interest this morning in Bromance (3.30), today’s nap for a 10-furlong handicap at Beverley and now a 2-1 shot after touching 3s. He did best of the hold-up runners when second here last week, looking a shade unlucky in the timing of his run, and won his previous race, also over this course and distance. I think there’s more to come from Peter Niven’s four-year-old, especially if there’s an honest pace set by Save The Bees.
At the other end of the popularity scale is Talent Scout (2.30), a course and distance winner just last month who is available at 20-1. He was well beaten last time but that was in a hotter race at York over an extra 300 yards. While he has won three times at Beverley, he has never gone close in three tries at York.
So I’m inclined to forgive him that and hope for a better effort this time. His 10 turf wins include four from a higher mark than he has today.
At Brighton, you can get 7-1 about Peking Flyer (3.15), for whom the penny may have finally dropped here last time. On his second start in a handicap, and also his second start with a tongue tie, he stayed on nicely in the last 100 yards to be fifth of 15.
Today, he has just nine rivals and has actually been dropped another 2lb. Perhaps he needs further still but his pedigree does not suggest it and I’ll take a chance on him.
Tips for all Tuesday racing
Beverley
2.00 Arabian Jazz 2.30 Talent Scout 3.00 Lean On Pete 3.30 Bromance (nap) 4.00 Doctor Dynamite 4.30 Niseko 5.00 Luminous 5.30 Foxy Boy
Brighton
2.15 Holdenhurst 2.45 Soaring Spirits 3.15 Peking Flyer 3.45 Mr Pocket (nb) 4.15 Seprani 4.45 Lawfilly 5.15 Strictly Art
Newton Abbot
6.00 Milan Hart 6.30 The Mythologist 7.00 Old Harry Rocks 7.30 Speed Demon 8.00 Bistouri D’Honore 8.35 Lake Shore Drive
Leicester
6.10 Classic Pursuit 6.40 Falmouth Light 7.10 Clear As a Bell 7.40 Flying Fantasy 8.10 Pioneering 8.45 Shining Romeo 9.15 Screaming Gemini
