Kevin Blake has made another fascinating and provocative contribution to the debate over female jockeys, using his AtTheRaces column to evaluate the statistical effect of French racing’s experiment with a weight allowance. Kevin and I differ on how the numbers should be interpreted but at least we now have some numbers to examine, thanks to his hours of work on the subject in recent weeks.
One headline is that the strike rate for all female jockeys in French Flat racing last year was 9.03%, which is up from 6.6% three years earlier and closing in on the average for all jockeys of 9.59%. That weight allowance, introduced only two years ago, is seemingly close to levelling the playing field.
Female jockeys won almost 15% of all French Flat races last year. The equivalent figure in 2016 was 4.63%.
The outcome seems close to ideal for French racing. Female jockeys are much more visible and the bad old days, when they were constantly marginalised, are disappearing into the past, but the change has not been so dramatic as to provoke vocal resentment from their male rivals.
Kevin lays a lot of importance on the fact that the female strike rate, while improved, has not quite caught up with the overall average. He says this shows France-Galop made an accurate calculation of what the weight allowance should be to bring about almost-parity, and also that it justifies the previous reluctance of French trainers and owners to use female jockeys. If they can’t get on level terms with a weight allowance, they clearly aren’t as good as men, on average, is his argument as I understand it. He reckons we should be considering a similar allowance in Britain and Ireland in order to ensure a level playing field.
My problem with this is that, while Kevin has crunched a lot of numbers, none of them can measure the quality of opportunities now being offered to women, or compare it to what the men are offered. Yes, women are getting more rides and more winners, at an improved rate. But are they getting the leg-up on well-fancied, well-handicapped horses as often as men?
It wouldn’t be easy to measure that but my intuition is that the answer is “no”. We’re talking about a female population of riders so starved of opportunities just three years ago that some kind of revolution was needed. Now they can claim 1.5kg off each mount, will all trainers and owners abandon their former scepticism about female jockeys? I’m betting that a percentage of them have done so, but by no means all.
In any case, the French experiment continues and it would be rash to imagine the new status quo is now set in stone. Rather, I think it will continue to develop as new female jockeys feed into the game and find a warmer welcome than their predecessors, while some trainers and owners become late adopters of the female allowance.
Tuesday’s best bets
Few trainers just now are hotter than Eric Alston, who is five from 10 over the last fortnight and has made it to the winner’s enclosure with his last four runners, all in handicaps. Of course, this might be a terrible moment to join the bandwagon because Alston’s only runner today is Chickenfortea (3.35), a non-winner since 2017.
Then again (and stop me if I’ve mentioned this before), the grey’s best three runs have been at Catterick, where he gets another chance on Tuesday. He’s been fancied for his last two starts there, which both ended pretty badly, but excuses could be made. He’s 12-1 from the opening 16s as I type, so it looks as though he’s going to be popular again.
Earlier, I’ll give another chance to Jimmy Krankyar (3.05), who still looked really green on his second start for Philip Makin, at Beverley a fortnight ago. He ran on from the back that day and another step up in trip, that valuable experience, softer ground AND cheekpieces could make the difference. He’s 15-2.
If you like your horses well bred, look no further than the Newbury runner Wafy (4.25), by Dubawi out of the Guineas winner Ghanaati, making him a half-brother to Afaak. The latter was improved by gelding and Wafy may be ready to take a similar step forward now, having probably needed the run when second to a well-treated rival at Ascot last time. He’s 4-1.
Catterick 2.00 Magna Moralia 2.30 Pearl Noir 3.05 Jimmy Krankyar (nb) 3.35 Chickenfortea 4.10 Mr Greenlight 4.40 Piedita 5.10 The Stalking Moon 5.45 Alotabottle
Newbury 2.15 Arabian Dream
2.45 Strict Tempo 3.20 Sesame Birah 3.50 Perfect Outing 4.25 Wafy 4.55 Space Ace 5.30 Tavus 6.05 Alandalos
Nottingham 5.25 Sir Boris 6.00 King’s View 6.30 Desert Lion 7.00 Last Look 7.30 Garrison Law 8.00 Spanish Aria (nap) 8.30 Gregorian Girl
Ripon 5.50 Betty Grable 6.20 Cloudea 6.50 Ice Skate 7.20 Oasis Prince 7.50 Count D’Orsay 8.20 Menin Gate
