Wednesday’s best bets, by Tony Paley
The Saturday card at Sandown will be worthy of very close study but only the Cheltenham Festival is on punters’ minds right now. Scanning the weather forecast at least we can be certain of one thing – there’s no point looking for mudlarks to back with dry and increasingly mild conditions on the cards for the meeting, which starts next Tuesday.
That news is a boost for the tip here the other week, the Philip Hobbs-trained Cheltenian, who will relish the drying ground. On the opening day there’s also a decent case to be made for Ned Stark (2.40) who looks a very solid bet with Ladbrokes at 10-1 for the Ultima Business Solutions Chase.
The improving novice chaser has won three out of four this campaign and has proven course form behind the smart Ptit Zig in his locker. He relished the step up to the trip he runs over on Tuesday at Wetherby last time and has plenty going for him.
As for today, David Bridgwater is turning out Lord Navits (2.10) quickly at Catterick this afternoon following his easy win in similar company last week and he looks worth supporting again this afternoon.
Semeral (3.00) is an interesting contender for the one-mile handicap at Lingfield. Chris Wall’s filly was third in a well-run race at this track in December and then caught the eye when dropped out behind a steady pace next time. Set to race off the same mark today, she has an obvious chance to record her first victory of 2015.
Dana’s Present (7.45) was also unsuited by sitting off a modest gallop last time out and will be difficult to beat at Kempton if back to the form of his two victories at Wolverhampton in January, the second of which was recorded in a good time off just a 4lb lower mark.
Cheltenham Festival stat of the day
by Paul Jones, author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide published by Weatherbys
The move brought in last season to tighten up the qualifying procedure so that horses must finish in the first eight in qualifiers for the Pertemps Final was well received, even if it meant that only one winner in the last 26 years would have been ineligible. However, given that as many as 20 qualifiers now run in Britain, Ireland and France and much has been made this season of the fact that there are fewer jump horses in training, connections have a greater choice which has meant that it is far more difficult not to qualify, given the field sizes. Whether their horses are then rated sufficiently high to get a run is another matter. I would like to see qualification limited to the first six in each qualifier, given that five winners of the Final since 1989 finished only seventh or eighth in their qualifier. Of course, winning a qualifier will help a horse earn its position into the race due to a rise in their official handicap mark but too big a rise has obvious negative consequences so I am not surprised that the record of qualifier winners in the Final has been poor. Last year, Fingal Bay became just the second winner of a qualifier to win the Final in the past 18 years.
The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide is published on 20 February and available via www.weatherbysshop.co.uk or 01933 304776
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
My Son Max 28-1
Mondo Cane 5-2
Bold Adventure 18-1
Tuesday
Catching On 11-2
Light The City 11-2
Montoya’s Son 7-2
And our leader is …
kildimo +42
… who took a wee breather on Tuesday, to the relief of all. Sandiuk (+27.50) picked Montoya’s Son and is now a clear second.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.40 Catterick, 7.45 Kempton, 8.45 Kempton.
This week’s prize is a pair of Premier tickets to Ascot for Sunday 29 March, a day of good quality jump racing midway between Cheltenham and Aintree. This year, it will be the first Prince’s Countryside Fund Raceday, featuring a range of countryside-inspired activities to keep the whole family entertained, it says here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -3.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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