Wednesday’s best bets, by Greg Wood
There are several good reasons why a horse might be overpriced, but it is rare to find several converging in the same spot, which makes Gabrial (3.20) an obvious bet at around 4-1 in the Fortune Stakes at Sandown this afternoon.
At first glance, Gabrial is a handicapper against a proven Group One horse in Elm Park, for all that Richard Fahey’s runner managed to finish third in the Sussex Stakes earlier in the season. He is much more exposed than Elm Park too, having lined up 11 times already this season, comfortably more than Elm Park has managed in his entire career.
What the market remembers is that he won the Lincoln Handicap back in March and has not managed a victory since. What it tends to forget is that the runner-up at Doncaster was Mondialiste, a recent Group One winner in Canada for David O’Meara, and that Gabrial has run with impressive consistency in a series of Pattern events.
Elm Park is the obvious favourite, and a worthy one as well on the balance of his form which includes victory in last season’s Racing Post Trophy, but odds-on quotes are much too short for a horse with something to prove after two defeats as a three-year-old. Timeform, in fact, reckon Gabrial has only 1lb to find with Andrew Balding’s runner at today’s weights, so a price of 9-2 versus the 4-5 about Elm Park simply looks wrong.
Postbag (3.55) improved when touched off by Rosalie Bonheur at Windsor last time. She is 1lb better off and has more scope for further progress that the winner, who re-opposes today. Hound Music (5.00) is a fair price at around 8-1 for the concluding handicap, while Critical Risk (3.30) and Flying Hammer (4.00) are the pick of a useful card at Yarmouth.
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
Spending Time 9-2
Great Expectations 12-1
Perfect Pastime 9-1
Tuesday
Willsy 100-30
Scoreline 9-1
Star Ascending 12-1
And our leader is …
TheVic +12.50
… who had the 12-1 shot Star Ascending yesterday. Fixxer and Factormax (+11.3) are in hot pursuit.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 1.45 Sandown, 3.00 Yarmouth and 3.55 Sandown.
This week’s prize is a copy of Paul Ferguson’s newly published Jumpers To Follow 2015-16, since we’re approaching the core jumps season. Now in its ninth year, the annual focuses on Ferguson’s 40 best prospects, with many additional features and a foreward from the trainer Jamie Snowden. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -6.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
