Wednesday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
I suppose it’s a bit like showing up at a wedding when you’re all but certain the bride has had a better offer. More than 20,000 people will go to York racecourse today in hope of witnessing the much-anticipated clash between Golden Horn and Gleneagles, knowing perfectly well that Gleneagles is an unlikely runner.
The track has taken a total of 14mm of rain since yesterday morning, about three times what was forecast. The going is now “Good to soft” all round, with GoingStick readings suggesting it may not be far off soft.
Aidan O’Brien, Gleneagles’ trainer, confirmed on Wednesday morning that the horse had travelled to York. He told the Racing Post: “Gleneagles travelled to York this morning. We’ll walk the track when we get there and make a decision then about whether or not he will run.”
It will be dry and sometimes sunny at York today, so hopefully the experience of being at the races will be more cheerful than the experience of being its clerk of the course yesterday. William Derby, the man in question, was hoping like the rest of us that the rain would be minimal, so as to produce ground on the fast side of good for this opening day of the Ebor meeting.
Gleneagles skipped a race at Goodwood last month for which the going was eventually “Good” and there is no doubt that today’s race would be even more of a test, requiring him to cover an extra quarter-mile on a more testing surface. It will be a most unexpected act of bravery if O’Brien commits Gleneagles to run today. The colt is a brilliant miler, unbeaten this year and he will be in demand as a stallion whether he runs again or not.
The Juddmonte International will still be a fascinating race without him and by no means a gimme for Golden Horn (3.40), who hasn’t run on ground with this much give since his debut in October. I think he’ll cope perfectly well, in which case the others have a mountain to climb, because this is one of the best three-year-olds we’ve seen.
And it is not as if his main rivals, Time Test and The Grey Gatsby, have had their chances improved by the rain. On the face of it, I’d say both prefer a faster surface and this is particularly true of the grey horse, whose form seems to leave no doubt on the subject.
I would take the 4-6 about Golden Horn that is on offer just now, if Gleneagles was a likely runner. But the odds will be shortened if that rival pulls out and I find that less tempting.
I think the remaining value may be the 40-1 about Criterion, who, unusually for an Australian raider, prefers some cut and ran quite respectably in defeat at Royal Ascot on a fast surface. Cheekpieces replace the blinkers in which he ran too free on that occasion, while William Buick replaces Chad Schofield in the saddle. The horse has had longer to acclimatise and to get over the travel sickness that affected him on his arrival in May.
He will probably still be 40-1 if Gleneagles comes out because no one is really looking in his direction. But it would not be an each-way bet in that event because there will only be seven runners, paying two places for each-way bets. If I made that bet, I’d do it win only and cross my fingers that the favourite might run below his best.
Earlier, the ploddy Storm The Stars looks an opposable favourite for the Great Voltigeur. Tashaar (3.05) must improve on what he’s shown but he has masses of scope to do that after just two starts. He was tremendously impressive winning his handicap at Glorious Goodwood and it is clear that Richard Hannon is getting his reward for being so patient with this staying prospect. The 9-2 appeals.
Tony Martin’s Heartbreak City (4.20) wears a tongue tie for the first time in the staying handicap and should get more room here than he found at Galway last time. Like a few others from his yard that we can remember over the years, he has the look of a horse who could be a lot better than he has so far shown. He’s 13-2.
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
Our Boy Jack 7-2
Gowanharry 14-1
Rio Ronaldo 5-2
Tuesday
Chancery 4-1
Outer Space 9-2
Golden Amber 9-1
And our leaders are …
wimvandervom +9
JahLion +9
eddiesgottheblues +9
… being our first-day leaders, all having struck out on Day Two. Their nearest pursuers are Crasivo and 15244 on +7.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.05 York, 3.40 York, 4.20 York.
This week’s prize is based around the Newmarket Open Weekend taking place on the 19th and 20th of September. You can read more about it here. We’re offering two pairs of tickets to the Open Weekend, allowing admission to all Newmarket Open Weekend attractions and sites and including Premier enclosure tickets to the racing on the Saturday at the Rowley Mile. A large number of Newmarket trainers will welcome the public to their yards for the Sunday of the Open Weekend and there will be plenty of other attractions including a Food and Drinks festival.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -3.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
