Wednesday’s best bets, by Chris Cook
The Grand National is still a fortnight away and more than 90 horses are still entered but, for once, there’s no doubt about which of them is best handicapped. The answer is Cause Of Causes, who is officially 13lb well in after hacking up in the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival last week.
That performance may have sailed under a few radars because the race, for amateur riders, is not one of the week’s most high-profile. But what he did was fairly amazing, making up a tonne of ground from three-out after exaggerated hold-up tactics, rocketing past his rivals to win by 12 lengths. It was, by five lengths, the biggest winning margin of the Festival.
Cause Of Causes doesn’t figure in the BHA’s ratings database, presumably because he’s trained in Ireland, so I asked Phil Smith, the official handicapper, how much he’d raise the horse for the National if he were able to take last week’s run into account. The answer was 13lb, though of course the weights for the National were fixed in mid-February and subsequent winners don’t even get a penalty, as has been the case for as long as I can remember.
The question now is whether Cause Of Causes will make the cut for the race. Even after yesterday’s withdrawals, he’s 56th on the list, needing another 16 above him to drop out before he’ll make the final field of 40.
Last year, the final horse to make the Grand National cut was 47th on the list at this stage. In 2014, the horse who was 50th at this stage got a run. In 2013, the 53rd horse at this stage made the final cut.
Those examples suggest Cause Of Causes is not going to make it, although his owner, JP McManus, could get him closer by withdrawing the five higher-weighted horses he owns. I must admit to a sneaking preference for this horse missing the cut, because I tend to think that the presence of such a well-treated animal undermines the interest of what should be a highly competitive handicap.
And it is not as though his ‘well-treated’ status was hard to see. Whereas he’ll carry 10st 1lb if he sneaks into the National, I had him on 10st 12lb in my prediction of what the weights would be. Cause Of Causes was rated 140 when runner-up in the 2014 Kim Muir and 146 before he won the Festival’s four-miler last year. The fact that he came to be on just 142 in the list for this year’s National (and for Cheltenham last week) seems a piece of unaccountably generous handicapping.
So why didn’t I tip him for Aintree when he was 33-1 a month ago, or for Cheltenham at odds of 9-2? The answer can only be that I’m going soft in the head and am to be pitied rather than censured.
Keeping that in mind, here are a couple of tips for today. Dubh Eile (4.20) really caught my eye in the mares’ handicap hurdle at Warwick and it’s interesting to see she’s been supported into 5-1.
She was twice a winner of similar contests on dry ground last spring and has come down 7lb from the peak mark she was given after those. The better for a recent reappearance on soft and with Tim Vaughan’s yard faring better than in midwinter, she has a live chance here.
Midnight Jade (4.50) is going the other way in the betting but surely 7-1 is too big for the handicap chase that follows. She took a big step forward for being sent over fences on her handicap debut last time, as might have been expected for a John Groucott horse, and must still be on a winning mark with 6lb extra to carry.
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
Captain Redbeard 4-1
Ganbei 5-1
Being Global 4-1
Tuesday
Three Faces West 6-4
Railway Storm 11-1
Top Cat Henry 17-2
And our leader is:
sandiuk +10
… who had the first three winners of the week, followed by three losers. Chasing hard: Geoff Staddon (+9.50), Crasivo (+8.50), Stephen Peter Phillips (+7.50).
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.50 Warwick, 4.50 Warwick, 8.15 Kempton.
This week’s prize is a copy of Racing & Football Outlook’s Flat Guide 2016, the handy annual which as ever is packed with facts, analysis, tips and insights into the new season to help lift your spirits from the post-Cheltenham slump. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today but you will start on -6.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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