Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Tsk, apparently there was another 2mm of rain at Epsom on Monday night and another 2mm on Tuesday morning, taking the total to 24mm at the Surrey track in the past day or so. With more rain expected around lunchtime, it seems the going description may very well be changed to “soft” at some point on Tuesday afternoon.
If the next three days were to provide drying conditions, you would still expect a good-ground Derby on Saturday afternoon but the forecast I use suggests near constant drizzle for the whole of that time.
Good to soft looks the most likely outcome to me, which is a pity because I like my Derby winners to have something like a turn of foot, some kind of flashy brilliance to offer the world. This weather favours the sort of grinder whose progeny will be winning at Plumpton one day.
Remarkably, the going at Nottingham remains good to firm, the track seemingly having missed the deluge which affected other parts of the country yesterday. That means conditions will be very similar to when Wings Of Esteem (3.00) faded out of contention over this course and distance a month ago and she is unfancied at 14-1.
What has changed since then is the form of her stable. Karl Burke could not buy a winner when she was last seen, whereas he is now undeniably on fire, with nine winners from 31 runners in the past fortnight. Wings Of Esteem ran rather too freely last time, her first outing for three months and her first on turf. With some of the air let out of her tyres, we can reasonable expect a better showing this time. Her Fibresand success in February suggests her current rating is fair.
Amanda Perrett is not on fire but her The Warrior (3.30) might be able to spark a flame of some kind by landing the following contest at 6-1 or so. An ex-Aidan O’Brien colt who has dropped 12lb from his initial rating in spring last year, he was fancied at Goodwood last time but got no run. In his previous outing, he stayed on well to be beaten just three lengths in the Victoria Cup. The extra furlong here should help and I also note with interest the addition of a tongue tie.
Bowson Fred (6.40) is napped at 4-1 under his penalty at Chelmsford tonight, when an inside draw may help him to dominate from the outset. Jabbaar (8.10) looks overpriced at 16-1 for the mile maiden, having finished strongly when the race was over on his debut a fortnight ago.
Tipping competition, day two
Our winners so far: Tuesday Triple Dream 8-1 Desert Strike 5-1
And our leaders are: Steve Ellis +13 JahLion +13 jackboyle1892 +13 fatdeano +13 .... who had both the available winners on Day One, our third race having been abandoned along with most of the Leicester card.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 4.00 Nottingham, 4.50 Cartmel, 7.10 Chelmsford.
This week’s prize, generously offered by William Hill, is a £50 bet on Saturday’s Derby! As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today but you will start on -2.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
