Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
Did any of you watch Conry, yesterday’s nap, at Catterick last night? That was a frustrating couple of minutes. I nearly threw my fish and chips at the screen but such behaviour is frowned upon in most branches of Ladbrokes.
The Racing Post analyst says Conry couldn’t go the early pace, although to my eyes the rider could have done more to help. By the time the field had gone a couple of furlongs, Conry had 25 lengths to make up on the leaders.
Yes, they went too fast in front but something often keeps going in these circumstances and this time it was Best Trip. Conry flew home up the middle of the track, failing by just two necks in the end. It was a cruel finish because he never looked like getting there in time. Drat and double drat.
Having demonstrated my inability to accept a reverse with grace and good humour, this might not be the best time for me to be tackling Chester and its wall of death. The inside rail is hard against the inside of the track for Day One of the May meeting, meaning there is no cutaway at the turn for home, a trick that is sometimes used to make sure the leaders fan out. The result is that, if you get boxed in against the inner rail today, you might still be there at the winning post, crawling over the backs of those in front. Good luck, all!
On the other hand, I think the familiar effect of the draw may be mitigated to some extent by the likely soft ground after a lot of recent rain. The official going description is Good to Soft, Good in places but the GoingStick reading is 6.4, which is more in keeping with soft going. Indeed, the official going for the Thursday and Friday of this meeting last year was Soft, despite slightly higher GoingStick readings than we have now.
If it is soft, that will slow everything down, tire out the leaders and give the hold-up horses more of a chance to mow them down. But it will also suit Shu Lewis (3.10) an interesting each-way bet for the Chester Cup at 22-1.
Hopefully, Silvestre de Sousa can get her out from her inside draw quickly because she’s a natural prominent racer with some form that suggests she’s Group class when there’s cut in the ground. She’s only a few pounds higher than when third in the Irish November Handicap a couple of years ago, despite getting shuffled back on the home turn in one of her rare forays into handicaps, and she was a fine second to the Festival winner Windsor Park on her reappearance last month.
She comes from a low-profile yard, which is why the betting ignores her, but things could fall well for Shu Lewis here. Angel Gabrial also looks over-priced at 11-1, having got a better draw than last year, when he came up short by just half a length. I napped him that day and still think he was unlucky, which gives you some insight into how long I shall be sulking over Conry.
Aidan O’Brien has the favourite for the Cheshire Oaks in Diamondsandrubies but he doesn’t usually run his best filly prospects in this race and I note that none of his three winners have ever won another race afterwards. This one is a daughter of Quarter Moon, another O’Brien filly who drove me up the wall with frustration in the summer of 2002 (a 13-year sulk!).
She had so much talent but somehow failed to win in seven outings that year. Something about the way Diamondsandrubies carried her head and flashed her tail when a beaten favourite last time put me in mind of her mother and I will be taking her on today.
The suggestion is Loaves And Fishes (2.40) at 10-1, from the Clive Cox yard that is making a fair start to the season. She travelled very strongly through her Haydock maiden in September, her only start so far. Cox trained her dam to win the Lingfield Oaks Trial, when the subsequent Oaks winner, Look Here, was second. His post-race comments suggest he had expected this filly to prove classy.
Tipping competition, day two
Our winners so far:
Tuesday
Tears Of The Sun 8-1
Brody Bleu 5-2
Best Trip 14-1
And our leaders are . . .
waltersobchak +12
PHILYERBOOTS +12
dean055 +12
… being the three who found Best Trip. Toptrapper (+9.50) had the other two winners on Day One.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.40 Chester, 3.10 Chester, 3.45 Chester.
This week, we’re offering you a second chance to win a copy of The Druids Lodge Confederacy, by Paul Mathieu, which recounts the amazing century-old story of five gentlemen gamblers who tried to make the game pay through the use of a remote stable on Salisbury Plain where the staff were locked in to ensure secrecy. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -3.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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