11am Rearranged Welsh National in danger of abandonment
Tony Paley: Saturday’s rearranged Coral Welsh National meeting at Chepstow is under threat of abandonment once again and the fate of the card is likely to hinge on a “last minute” decision.
More rain overnight in Wales has not helped matters, but clerk of the course Keith Ottesen would have been able to give the green light if the meeting was on Wednesday. However, even more rain is forecast.
“We had nine millimetres yesterday evening which we could have done without and I didn’t really envisage - I’ve taken the forecasters to task,” Ottesen told At The Races.
“At the moment we’ve got some horrible, deep, heavy ground, but because it hasn’t rained since midnight, we would be racing today.
“The forecasts are almost meaningless. We had some rain over the weekend and I thought that might be it for a couple of days bar a few light showers, but over Monday and Tuesday we had an inch of rain.
“Tonight there is an organised band of rain coming in which will be with us most of the night with another 10 to 12mm which isn’t going to help.
“However, we get another break in the day tomorrow, showers on Friday but the biggest threat we have is though we start off fine on Saturday, if the rain gets organised by midday and continues.
“We’ve all been around long enough to know it’s probably going to be a last minute decision. We are desperate to get this on, we don’t want a blank year, especially when we’ve worked hard to rearrange.”
Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
In the Racing Post’s lead story today, Willie Mullins admits he has considered the possibility of winning the British trainers’ title one day. In ordinary circumstances, that would be a longshot but Paul Nicholls is not setting his usual strong pace at the head of affairs and could be catchable if the Irishman has a particularly good time at the spring festivals.
“I have thought about the British trainers’ championship and it would be nice to win it one day but it certainly isn’t something we’ve ever set out to do,” Mullins is quoted as saying. He’s had winners at Taunton and Sandown in the past seven days but insists, plausibly, that that is not part of any grander plan, simply a reflection of the number of good horses he has to run and his need to find opportunities further afield than Ireland.
Mullins was available yesterday morning at 8-1 to be champion trainer in Britain this season but 4-1 is now the best available.
At Chelmsford today, Silvestre de Sousa rides four for Chris Dwyer, reminding me of De Sousa’s comments near the end of last year that Dwyer was really the only trainer who used him as a principal jockey. Four runners is about a third of the total Dwyer has been running per month since the turf season ended, so it does look a little bit as if Dwyer has had it in mind to use the jockey on the few days he’s available, De Sousa being apparently on his way to Hong Kong shortly. The pair were one from two at Southwell yesterday.
Of their four today, Dark Side Princess (1.30) is the one that catches my eye, making her handicap debut in a race that is coming apart slightly, down to five runners from an original eight. There was clear promise in the two of her maidens over this course and distance.
I note in passing that Dwyer’s record in maiden races in recent seasons is one win from 89 starts, or 0/46 with two-year-olds, this filly having been that age for all her starts so far. Happily, Dwyer’s record in handicaps is a much cheerier 74/595 (12%), so perhaps there is reason to hope for better from Dark Side Princess in this sphere. She’s 4-1.
I’ll also take the 9-2 about the penalised Louis Vee (3.00), seeking his third success in the space of a month after seeming to be revived by a change of stables last summer. He’s 12lb higher than for the first of those but this mark was within his compass at his peak a couple of years ago and there’s encouragement in the way he’s been finishing his races.
In similar vein but at Kempton, there’s 5-1 about U S Navy Seal (6.10), who broke his maiden a few days before Christmas when Adam Kirby rode for the first time. He’s back aboard today.
This four-year-old is bred to be a bit better than he has so far shown and there have been at least a couple of excusable defeats. His revised mark looks manageable to me and the third and fourth from his maiden win have since scored. He’s 5-1.
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
Cloonacool 5-2
Simarthur 14-1
Chestnut Ben 14-1
Tuesday
Royal Marskell 8-1
Loudly 7-2
Play Nicely 5-4
And our leader is …
royal1scot +24
… who took a breather on Tuesday. Bonzodrongo (+18) has had Chestnut Ben and Royal Marskell. Wiggy12 (+14.75) and stanflashman (+13.50) pursue.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.20 Wolverhampton, 3.10 Huntingdon, 6.10 Kempton.
This week’s prize is a pair of tickets to Warwick for Classic Chase day on Saturday 16 January. It is the track’s big raceday of the year and also features the Leamington Hurdle, won in recent years by The New One and Inglis Drever. If you don’t win, you can buy tickets here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -6.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
Good luck!
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And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
