Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
So it appears there is someone up there who doesn’t love horse racing, at least not for now. We’re at the end of a Flat season in which innumerable big-name clashes were killed off by seasonally inappropriate rain and now the weather patterns for this transitional week are the reverse of what one would expect, as well as being the reverse of what most racing fans would wish.
Which is to say, there will be lots of rain in the US, where they’re going to stage the Breeders’ Cup this weekend, and not enough at Wetherby, where Saturday’s Charlie Hall is an important staging post on the way to the core jumps season. In Keeneland, they are expecting up to an inch of rain today. An inch! And that’s not the end of it, as thunderstorms are in the forecast for tomorrow.
Keeneland supposedly drains quickly but this is still not what one wants to hear for the sakes of Golden Horn in the Turf and Time Test in the Mile. Roger Charlton, who trains Time Test, told me last night that the horse will run anyway, so long as the track is not actually washed away. “We’re not going to go all that way and not run him,” he said. But he was decidedly downbeat and clearly hoping that the weathermen have got it wrong. Encouragingly, there are one or two precedents for this.
The going at Wetherby, meanwhile, is still just Good, whereas those with entrants in the Charlie Hall are mostly hoping for Good to Soft. There is a total of 8mm now in the forecast for the next two days, with a steady drizzle predicted for Friday, so let’s hope that every drop of that turns up.
A GoingStick reading of 6.9 for Catterick today suggests to me the ground may be a shade more testing than the official Good to Soft. In any event, it should be fine for Cadeaux Power (2.15) a 15-2 shot for a seven-furlong handicap there. She seemed to relish the step up to this trip and the soft going when scoring here 10 days ago and is much better drawn from just a 5lb higher mark today.
I don’t much like tipping at Lingfield but Naizah (3.10) appeals at 7-2, stepped up to 10 furlongs for her handicap debut. She’s had a break since July, when she was second in a fair maiden at Chelmsford. The third horse has since won from a mark 8lb above the one Naizah has today.
You can get 9-4 about Chankillo (3.30), who has been progressive over fences and finally scored at Market Rasen last time, having been two lengths up when a last-fence faller the time before. The runner-up from Rasen has since won twice and Chankillo may still be very fairly treated on an 8lb higher mark.
Tipping competition, day two
Our winners so far:
Monday
Noble Gift 14-1
Azamesse 5-2
Monbeg River 13-8
And our leader is. . .
Bocuma_TJ +14.63
... who started strongly by finding both Noble Gift and Monbeg River. Five others had Noble Gift and give chase on +12, while wiggy12 is on +3.13 after picking the other two winners.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.15 Catterick, 3.40 Lingfield, 4.00 Bangor.
This week’s prize is a copy of Mark Howard’s One Jump Ahead for the coming winter, a 188-page guide to the new season, packed with insights and horses to follow, both in England and Ireland. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -3.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
Good luck!
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And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
