Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
It’s been a good couple of days on Talking Horses, or so I feel, at any rate. From six tips in this space, I’ve hit two winners at 18-1 and 13-2.
It’s great to feel that you’re in form, because it gives you confidence and enthusiasm, which should, in theory, help you to continue making good decisions. But the confidence is dangerous because in my experience it can sometimes take just a couple of winners before you start believing your own propaganda.
From picking an outsider because you fancied its chance and the odds are wrong, it’s a surprisingly short step to picking an outsider because you’re the king of horse racing and you’ve only got to point at a horse to make it win. This, naturally and deservedly, leads to disaster, followed by loss of enthusiasm, loss of confidence and, before you know it, you’re back to sulking about 1.01 losers at Lingfield.
So I’ve done my best to keep a level head in looking at today’s racing. Just the same, there are a couple of horses who seem to be significantly over-priced.
At Newcastle, where they’re building up to Northumberland Plate day on Saturday, there’s been some support for Polar Forest (3.05), who opened at 25-1 but is now no bigger than 14s. He’s back down to the same mark from which he won over this course and distance in November and I quite like the fact that he’s running for the first time in five months; there haven’t been many such gaps in his racing career but he has usually run well after them and scored on his seasonal reappearance just a couple of years ago.
No such form case can be built for Circuit (4.50) but circumstances make her interesting at 33-1 for a low-quality contest. There was just an ounce or two of promise in her debut at Chelmsford in December, when she kept on to finish two lengths behind a horse that won off 65 the next month.
She’s been stuffed in two further maidens and a turf handicap, all while in the care of Mick Quinn. In this, she was simply mirroring the form of the rest of the yard, because Quinn is on a 3% strike-rate this year.
The result is that she’s on a basement mark for this debut for Wilf Storey, who got hold of her at some point after her last run on 9 May. Storey has been going pretty well for a couple of years and he might have had this one long enough to get her moving in the right direction. She has a first-time tongue tie and a useful 3lb claimer aboard for this first handicap on an all-weather surface. There’s enough there to make her interesting, while accepting the distinct possibility that she may blow out completely.
I have a couple of more conventional selections at Newmarket, though an astonishing 70mm of rain there this week may produce unpredictable results. I bet it’ll ride softer than the official description of good to soft, soft in places.
Mutoondresdashorse (3.15) is the right favourite at 9-4 for a six-furlong handicap, having run on well to win his maiden on soft at Newbury. He finished lame when disappointing in an all-weather handicap a month ago.
I’m surprised to be getting 9-2 about Daira Prince (5.00) against a small field for the mile handicap. He’s only 3lb higher than when scoring on his handicap debut and has masses of scope to be better than his rating of 80, being a Dubawi half-brother to Chinese White, a Pretty Polly winner who was also fourth in an Irish Oaks.
If none of that works, my last throw of the dice for today will be in the very last race. Kenny The Captain (9.10), a 7-1 shot for the last at Hamilton tonight, drops into Class 5 company for the first time since his last turf win, in September.
Like a few of the Tim Easterby horses, he has been gradually running his way into form and did well when sixth in a big field at York last time. This softer surface will suit him better. Hee Haw may be hard to beat under a penalty but he has a much less prolific jockey aboard this time.
Tips for all Thursday races
Newcastle
2.00 Weellan 2.30 Odds On Oli 3.05 Polar Forest (NB) 3.40 Qaffaal 4.15 Symbolic Star 4.50 Circuit 5.20 Safe Voyage 5.55 Pastime
Newmarket
2.10 Roland Rocks 2.40 Theglasgowwarrior 3.15 Mutoodresdashorse 3.50 Saluti 4.25 Khamaary 5.00 Daira Prince (nap) 5.35 Justice Lady
Nottingham
2.20 Agadeer 2.50 Pouvoir Magique 3.25 Zabeel Prince 4.00 Hellomoto 4.35 Artscape 5.10 Shackled N Drawn 5.45 Miningrocks
Newbury
5.50 Diable D’Or 6.20 Queen Of Kalahari 6.50 So Crafty 7.25 Wannabe Friends 8.00 Heart Of Gold 8.30 Deeds Not Words 9.00 Monologue
Hamilton
6.00 Tonto’s Spirit 6.30 Quayside 7.00 Wee Jock 7.35 Grey Diamond 8.10 Dark Crystal 8.40 Honeysuckle Lil 9.10 Kenny The Captain
