Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
It was interesting this morning to read the comments of Roger Charlton in the Racing Post, to the effect that he was keen to run Time Test in the Eclipse at Sandown on Saturday, even if the going is good to soft, rather than the fast ground the horse prefers. “There’s nothing else for him to run in, so the chances are he will turn up,” the trainer is quoted as saying.
I admire the spirit and of course we all remember what happened with Gleneagles last summer, when connections of the flash Irish miler were so picky about ground conditions that they didn’t run him between Royal Ascot and Champions Day. That was dispiriting.
And this is another dispiriting summer for anyone with a classy, top-of-the-ground sort. I begin to fear we’ll never get consecutive dry days ever again. As a trainer said to me the other day: “We’ll be looking to buy yearlings with great big feet”.
On the face of it, however, Sandown is drying out pretty quickly. The going description became ‘good to soft, soft in places’ on the round course last night, which is impressive, considering there had been standing water about 60 hours before.
We have no GoingStick reading, however, which might have offered an additional insight. At the moment, I suspect readings for Sandown would differ widely depending on where you took them. The bend out of the back straight is likely to be pretty squelchy and I gather the rails there are being realigned to take the runners away from the worst of the ground.
The next 36 hours will be important, with regard to the ground on which the Eclipse is run. Sandown might get another 10mm of rain in that time, in which case I’d expect it to ride soft.
One of the interesting features of this season, at a low level, has been the renewed success of the Kilkenny trainer Pat Shanahan, who you might remember as the man who won the Irish Derby on Zagreb 20 years ago. Shanahan had eight winners in Britain in 2013, his second year with a licence, but had been quieter for the last two years.
He’s already had six for this year, five of them at Hamilton, where he sends most of his raiders these days - I believe his main backer is a Scot, for what it’s worth. Shanahan has a 22% strike-rate at Hamilton this year and a fair chance of three more winners there today.
Jocks Wa Hae (2.30) is deservedly 2-1 to follow up his comfortable success of a fortnight ago. He’s gone up 9lb and this is a faster surface, so there’s a risk of him being outpaced, but cheekpieces and Joe Fanning may help.
Lara Carbonara (3.00) carries a penalty for her success here five days ago. That was in a race for amateur riders, so the form may not be all that reliable, but she had already shown improved form as she was stepped up in distance. The 7-2 is fine against a Godolphin favourite, Long Call, who could probably have used more juice in the ground.
Shanahan’s third could be Born Innocent (4.00), whose only defeat in three Hamilton runs was when stepped up to a mile. This six furlongs is more like it for her and I liked the way she shrugged off trouble in running to get up last time.
Tipping competition, day two
Our winners so far:
Monday
Gran Canaria Queen 8-1
Matidia 11-4
Slemy 13-2
And our leader is:
BearRides +13.50
… who had both Gran Canaria Queen and Slemy. Lindsey6677 (+9.75) had Gran Canaria Queen and Matidia.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 4.00 Hamilton, 4.15 Brighton, 4.45 Brighton.
This week’s prize is a copy of the much-praised Mr Darley’s Arabian, by Chris McGrath, who used to turn out high-quality prose about horse racing for the Weekender, the Times and the Independent. This is a history of our sport, described in an Observer review as offering “a teeming, colourful survey” of its many stories, drawing on “a cast that takes in aristocrats and nouveaux riches, playboys and industrialists, Smithfield meat salesmen and the rulers of Dubai”, according to a press release from the publishers. If you don’t win, you can buy it here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today but you will start on -3.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
