Tuesday’s best bets, by Tony Paley
The Flat season takes off this week and there is an awful lot to look forward to at Newmarket and then Newbury from Wednesday through to the weekend. The race that the bulk of punters will want to look at, though, is the Scottish Grand National at Ayr on Saturday. Remarkably, it’s the fifth most popular betting race of the year behind only the Aintree equivalent, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Derby and the Champion Hurdle.
This year there will be even more focus on the race as it presents Tony McCoy with his final chance to win a National after his fifth on Shutthefrontdoor at Aintree last weekend. The multiple champion jockey is going to retire after the final jumps meeting of the year at Sandown a week on Saturday but at present it is unsure which horse he will ride in the Scottish National as I outlined in my news report on Monday night.
This year’s race is well worth a good look at as the confirmed participation of top-weight Sam Winner means we have a definite idea of the shape of the field and what weights will be carried. Weight is a significant factor in the recent history of the race as there have only been two winners since 2002 that have carried more than 11 stone. McCoy would be expected to ride the Jonjo O’Neill-trained Catching On but he hasn’t ridden below 10st 4lb for 12 months and Catching On will be a pound lower than that. Gallant Oscar and Broadway Buffalo are others prominent in the betting who figure among the bottom weights.
The ground is the single most important variable factor in the outcome of horse races and there is plenty of rain around today and tomorrow but it may dry up in the Ayr region before the weekend. The current ground is good to soft, soft in places and if conditions were more testing that would definitely be in Catching On’s favour.
Today is the famine before the feast before Newmarket’s Craven fixture starting on Wednesday but the best bet of the day may come on the level in the shape of Lazy Sioux (2.20) in the opener at Southwell. The application of a visor has transformed her of late and she goes in search of a hat-trick here on the same mark as her latest success as she escapes a penalty for winning an apprentice race.
Tipping competition – day two
Factormax found two winners yesterday and leads after day one on +8.5.
This week’s prize is a copy of Racing & Football Outlook’s Flat Racing Guide 2015, including tips for the season ahead, profiles of horses to follow, detailed results from last year and trainer interviews among many features. If you don’t win, you can buy it here.
Today, we’d like your selections, please, for these races: 2.10 Carlisle, 2.40 Carlisle and 3.00 Exeter.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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