Thursday’s best bets, by Tony Paley
Taunton is suffering small-field jumps meeting syndrome and it’s probably best to concentrate on Ludlow of the National Hunt cards today. What A Good Night (3.20) has plenty in his favour at the Shropshire track. He goes well after a break, would have completed a hat-trick but for a fall two out at Wetherby in October while being raised 9lb in the ratings for his latest success is probably not enough to stop him today.
At Southwell, Patrick (2.10) won well on his debut and was better than the bare result last time having stumbled mid-race while at Chelmsford City, Mishaal (8.10) was only edged out of it on the line last time when trying to overcome a 6lb rise in the weights and looks to be thriving at present.
Cheltenham Festival stat of the day
by Paul Jones, author of the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide published by Weatherbys
All being well, Don Cossack is going to be a well-backed favourite for the Ryanair Chase but he will have a couple of statistics to overcome. Firstly, nine of the ten winners had won at Cheltenham before, with only Riverside Theatre preventing a clean sweep. Seven of the ten runners-up had also won at Cheltenham, underlining the advantage of quality course form. Previous course winners have outnumbered their rivals by 56-48 but that still doesn’t suggest the record of previous course winners should be as dominant as is the case. Another worry for Don Cossack fans is that Irish-trained horses are 0/28 in the Ryanair. That’s a statistical blip, of course, as there can be no possible reason why an Irish-trained horse cannot win a Grade 1 over the intermediate trip at Cheltenham, especially as they have won six of the last 13 runnings of the Melling Chase at Aintree, which was formerly THE championship event of the season run over this kind trip, and some would still view it as such. Don Cossack is owned by the race sponsor, Michael O’Leary, and he has seen his silks twice carried into second place in his own race, by Mossbank and First Lieutenant.
The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide is published on February 20th and available online via www.weatherbysshop.co.uk or by calling 01933 304776
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
Flemi Two Toes 4-1
Bobs Lady Tamure 3-1
No Deal 2-1
Tuesday
Guards Chapel 6-1
Bearly Legal 5-1
Allez Cool 7-2
Wednesday
Murrayana 2-1
Achimota 4-1
Stellarta 11-2
And our leader is …
72luca +6
. . . who has had Guards Chapel, Murrayana and Achimota. Other good scores: 23skidoo +5, moidadem +4.50, Crasivo +3, orso +3.
Apologies to all for the scores that were posted early yesterday, when we wrongly imagined Harris to have won on Tuesday. Allez Cool was in fact the winner of that race after Harris was disqualified and the scores were recalculated when we realised our error.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.20 Ludlow, 3.50 Ludlow, 5.10 Taunton.
This week’s prize is a copy of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, by Paul Jones. The famous guide to winner-finding at those four days in March is now in its 16th year and more prized than ever. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -9.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
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