Thursday’s best bets, by Greg Wood
The going remains good-to-soft at York for the second day of the Ebor Festival after 2mm of rain last night, but there has been nothing since midnight and the forecast is for a dry afternoon, which should edge the conditions towards good ground by the time of the featured Yorkshire Oaks at 3.40.
That might disappoint Francois Doumen, who feels that Sea Calisi (3.40) runs best with some cut, but it is not going to be fast and his improving filly looks like the value in the race at around 10-1.
Sea Calisi’s price does not show due respect to her trainer, who like David Elsworth, yesterday’s big-race winner, is most familiar in Britain for outstanding National Hunt performers but has also enjoyed plenty of success at Group One level on the Flat. There is also no obvious line between her Group Two success at St Cloud last time out and the form of Covert Love, the Irish Oaks winner and certain favourite.
Yet Doumen has had this race in mind for Sea Calisi for a long while, she reversed earlier Group Three form with the runner-up at St Cloud last time to suggest that she is improving, and Timeform rate her alongside Covert Love at the top of the pile. Covert Love is a Classic winner but started the season in a handicap and may not be as far ahead of her field as the betting suggests, which makes Sea Calisi an obvious choice at the current prices.
The 12-1 about You’re Fired (3.05) did not last long thanks to the influence of Pricewise in the Racing Post, but Karl Burke’s runner produces his best form at this track and has an obvious chance on the form of his close second at the May meeting here in particular.
Spangled (4.55) was still showing her inexperience when she won at Newmarket’s July meeting and should follow up even after a 9lb hike in the ratings, while Lumiere (2.30), another winner at the July Festival, can take another successful step towards next season’s Classics in the Lowther.
Tipping competition, day four
Our winners so far:
Monday
Our Boy Jack 7-2
Gowanharry 14-1
Rio Ronaldo 5-2
Tuesday
Chancery 4-1
Outer Space 9-2
Golden Amber 9-1
Wednesday
Storm The Stars 3-1
Arabian Queen 50-1
Heartbreak City 7-1
And our leaders are. . .
JahLion +10
… who was already joint-top before picking Storm The Stars. Crasivo has been joined in second place on +8 by Mai11, one of three to pick Heartbreak City.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 3.05 York, 3.40 York, 4.55 York.
This week’s prize is based around the Newmarket Open Weekend taking place on the 19th and 20th of September. You can read more about it here. We’re offering two pairs of tickets to the Open Weekend, allowing admission to all Newmarket Open Weekend attractions and sites and including Premier enclosure tickets to the racing on the Saturday at the Rowley Mile. A large number of Newmarket trainers will welcome the public to their yards for the Sunday of the Open Weekend and there will be plenty of other attractions including a Food and Drinks festival.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -6.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
