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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Chris Cook and Tony Paley

Talking Horses: Thursday’s best bets plus the latest racing news

Sire De Grugy
Sire De Grugy had a workout at his trainer Gary Moore's stables on Tuesday. Photograph: Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images

11.30am Moore says Sire De Grugy will need Game Spirit run

Tony Paley: Gary Moore has revealed that Sire De Grugy is likely to be short of peak fitness when he makes his comeback in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury on February 7.

The Queen Mother Champion Chase winner has not been out since winning at Sandown in April last year, after suffering a setback.

Moore told At The Races: “He’s not as fit as I’d like at this stage. He worked [on Tuesday morning] and he worked well - as long as he improves for his work on Saturday I’ll be satisfied, but he did look like he needed the work.”

Asked if he was confident the nine-year-old was as good as ever, Moore said: “I couldn’t answer that question truthfully now, but I’d be very disappointed if he wasn’t and very surprised if he wasn’t. I don’t think he’ll go to Newbury as fit as he can be, but it’s not all about Newbury is it.”

Assessing Sprinter Sacre’s performance at Ascot last weekend, Moore said: “He didn’t fill me with any dread, obviously there’s issues going on with the horse but he looked extremely fit the other day and I don’t think he blew up, he was probably race-rusty.

“You can’t leave Dodging Bullets out of it [Champion Chase equation], he’s taken nearly the same route as us last year and doing the same as we did. It’s not just a two-horse race.”

11.20am Friday’s cards face early morning inspections

Frost fears have forced Huntingdon racecourse to call an 8am precautionary inspection ahead of its meeting on Friday.

Although the track was fine on Thursday morning, overnight temperatures could plummet to around minus 4C. The going is currently soft.

A statement issued by Huntingdon read: “Some sunny spells on Thursday, with temperatures up to 3C during the day. Colder again on Friday, with temperatures possibly as low as minus 4C overnight. Rain forecast on Friday but not currently expected until after racing.”

Doncaster’s Friday’s jumps meeting must also survive an 8am precautionary inspection on raceday morning. Clerk of the course Roderick Duncan will be closely monitoring conditions as overnight temperatures are set to dip below freezing.

Town Moor had been under a light covering of snow, but this has now melted after nearly nine millimetres of rainfall.

The going on both the chase and hurdles track is soft, good to soft in places.

Doncaster is also due to race on Saturday, when the Skybet Chase takes top billing on a fine card. Duncan said: “We’d be quite optimistic if that forecast is correct. “I don’t anticipate any problems for Saturday’s meeting, but we do need to have a look tomorrow because of that frost threat.” PA

Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook

An interesting point about the weights for this year’s Grand National has emerged in today’s Racing Post. For reasons of their own, Aintree are arranging the event at which the weights will be revealed for one week later than normal this year, for 17 February. That means the handicapper can take into account what happens in Haydock’s Grand National Trial on 14 February, a race that always use to be staged days after the National weights were set.

The National is unusual in that no penalties are carried for wins achieved after the weights are revealed, which is possibly why some Aintree candidates experience a sudden revival in their form thereafter. Paul ‘Trends King’ Jones was telling me just the other day that horses who have run notably well after the weights come out are a good bet in the National itself; Hedgehunter, Comply Or Die and Neptune Collonges all fell into that category.

In his National prep, Neptune Collonges was beaten a neck in the Haydock race, days after the weights were set. He actually ran off a 2lb lower mark in the National because of the way the handicapper compresses the top end of the weights these days. But this year, any horse that runs well at Haydock is taking the risk of having a few extra pounds at Aintree and I’m afraid the trial race will be much less attractive to trainers as a result.

While we’re thinking Grand National, it’s a shame that Teaforthree (third at Aintree in 2013) will miss his planned reappearance in a hunter chase today, because of a bruised foot. I must admit, I was rather looking forward to taking him on, because it’s not often you get to oppose an odds-on plodder who hasn’t won for almost three years. But whatever you hoped to see from him, these horses do help to brighten up midweek days in midwinter.

In his absence, my interest at Warwick is mainly in The Tourard Man (2.50), a well backed 4-1 shot for the staying handicap hurdle. He was beaten only by Flintham (pitched into a Grade Two next time) on his handicap debut at Ascot before Christmas, when the third horse was seven lengths back.

Softer ground will help him here and he comes from the Alan King yard. That trainer always seems to mean business when he goes to Warwick, where he has maintained a 23% strike-rate in the past five seasons from over 100 runners, the best strike-rate he has managed at the 15 tracks where he has fielded more than 65 runners in that time.

Vision Du Coeur is interesting again but he has won a couple of weak races at Fakenham and this is much more of a challenge.

Fakenham also races today and Nouailhas (4.00) is the nap in the closing handicap hurdle. Horses with a 1/33 career record don’t generally make nap appeal but this is a weak contest and he has been consistently good since joining Daniel O’Brien for this jumps season, getting nutted on the line on heavy at Plumpton last time. He wears cheekpieces for only the second time, the first having been over fences a couple of years ago.

I suppose I’d better have a cut at the Thyestes, seeing as we’ve asked you to tackle it in the competition (below). Like Your Style (3.15) is possibly overpriced at 33-1, considering that he remains fairly treated, despite having proven he can operate at this level. He won a valuable handicap chase at the Punchestown Festival in 2012 and was beaten half a length in the Troytown later that year.

He appears to have had problems since then, judging by longish periods of absence, but there was renewed promise at a low level last time and he remains on a fair mark if back to himself. He hasn’t had many chances over fences since those early glory days and, as a JP McManus horse with the blossoming Mark Walsh aboard, he has an interesting profile.

Tipping competition, day four

Our winners so far:

Monday

Marie Des Anges 5-2

Aroseforoscar 15-2

Dana’s Present 9-2

Tuesday

Stickleback 10-1

Clondaw Knight 10-1

Rayadour 7-1

Wednesday

Grate Fella 7-4

No Through Road 4-1

Deny 7-2

And our leader is. . .

Lindsey6677 +15.25

. . . .who already had the lead before picking the first two winners yesterday.

Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 2.50 Warwick, 3.15 Gowran Park, 5.40 Chelmsford City.

This week’s prize is a copy of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, by Paul Jones. The famous guide to winner-finding at those four days in March is now in its 16th year and more prized than ever. It won’t be printed for another month but whoever wins will get a copy from the first batch posted to them as soon as can be and we hope to offer a second copy nearer the time. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.

As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -9.

In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.

For terms and conditions click here.

Good luck!

Click here for all the day’s racecards, form, stats and results.

And post your tips or racing-related comments below.

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