Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
One interesting side-note to yesterday’s story about sexist comments made by Michael Tebbutt is that usage of female jockeys on the Flat appears to have peaked in 2012 and declined steeply in each of the following two years. You can see the graph on this interesting page of statistics produced by Stephen Mainwaring of FlatStats.
In 2012, 8% of all Flat runners were ridden by women. It was the year after Hayley Turner had made history by riding two Group One winners and she was flying along with 785 rides, a tally she has bettered only once in her career.
Amy Ryan and Cathy Gannon also finished in the top 50 by number of winners that year. Kirsty Milczarek was busy, while Leonna Mayor, Amy Scott and Nicole Nordblad were having what would prove to be the most prolific year of their careers.
Injury has been a factor for several of them. Turner and Gannon soldier onwards, no longer as fashionable as they once were but still getting rides. Milczarek had to give up the game on medical advice last year.
Others have faded from the picture and the worrying thing, for fans of equal opportunity, is that their places have not been taken by younger women emerging onto the scene. Shelley Birkett, Samantha Bell and Rachel Richardson are having good years but are yet to break into a double-figure number of wins. Jenny Powell, who had such a good run through last summer, has had just two winners so far in 2015.
FlatStats say that the percentage of Flat runners ridden by women dropped below 6% last year, to the lowest level since 2007. Their numbers also say that just 2.4% of favourites are ridden by women, suggesting that women are not often used when a horse is expected to go well (although that data could be clouded by punter aversion to making a horse favourite if the jockey is female).
It’s all very troubling. I’d love to see racing popularise itself as the one major sport in which women and men compete on level terms but, let’s face it, we’re not there yet. Equality of opportunity seems a long way off.
My first thought on looking at the 10-furlong handicap at Hamilton this afternoon was that Eutropius would be a really solid bet under his penalty for a convincing win at Redcar last week. I still feel there are worse 4-1 shots but I’m going with First Sitting (4.00) at just half a point bigger.
He showed a bit of ability in three summer runs for Dermot Weld last year before joining David O’Meara and being gelded. Reappearing in a Thirsk maiden, he did best of the closers to be a half-length second and now has what could be a very reasonable mark for this handicap debut, stepping back up in trip and likely to be fitter this time.
In Lingfield’s mile and a half maiden, I’m taking on Justice Belle, who keeps running second but is always being beaten by daylight. Mythical Moment (2.40) could be the one at 3-1.
William Haggas’s filly presumably showed something at home last year, as she was fancied for both her maidens. She ran on late at York but couldn’t get competitive at Doncaster, where she raced with one other horse, away from the main pack.
Now this daughter of Authorized steps up half a mile and sports a hood for the first time. Perhaps she’s a type for handicaps but there’s enough promise there for her to be backable here and Haggas is very happy to win three-year-old maidens.
With Charlie Hills suddenly in form, Pharmaceutical (7.20) is interesting at Kempton tonight. He also wears a first-time hood, having blown his chance in his two handicap starts so far by pulling too hard. It’s possible that the gelding operation may have done more to settle him.This is competitive but, for a 14-1 shot, he has a lot of scope to be ahead of his mark.
Tipping competition, day three
Our winners so far:
Monday
Queen Catrine 9-4
Great Page 4-1
Tropics 7-1
Tuesday
Sarangoo 9-4
Instant Attraction 9-1
Honeysuckle Lil 9-2
Wednesday
Big Baz 13-8
Mutatis Mutandis 12-1
Mississippi 15-2
And our leader is …
jamesstod +14
… who combined Mutatis Mutandis with Instant Attraction. PHILYERBOOTS (+12.50) was among those who had Mississippi.
Today, we’d like your tips, please, for these races: 4.00 Hamilton, 7.20 Kempton, 7.55 Kempton.
This week’s prize is a £25 bet on the Derby, offered by those generous souls at Coral! If, on Friday, you think you may have won, keep an eye on your email inbox, as we’ll have to contact you on Friday evening to arrange your bet. You could specify in advance how you’d like your bet to be placed in the event that you win.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -9.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
Click here for all the day’s racecards, form, stats and results.
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
