Today’s best bets, by Chris Cook
The good times appear to be back at Noel Wilson’s County Durham yard, which has already sent out five winners this year, as many as it had managed in the whole of the previous two years put together. Wilson had a good run of six consecutive years in which he managed a double-figure number of winners and peaked at a strike-rate of 12% in 2008 but times have been harder since then, his strike-rate from 2013 to 2016 averaging out at 4%.
It may not last but this year already looks much better, with those five wins coming from just 13 runners (38%). He’s won with three different horses from four runners in the past fortnight, two of them having been backed down to favourite.
Today looks like a big day, as Wilson sends five to Ayr and I’ve ended up tipping four of them, which will doubtless bring the party to a shuddering halt. The unpenalised Longroom is unbackably short in the second race at 4-9 but there’s 5-1 about Our Place In Loule (3.00) and 4-1 about Hayward Field (4.00).
Our Place In Loule is a sprint handicapper who didn’t do much last year but is now on a career-low mark of 50 and should have more to offer at the age of four. He was second of 19 on his reappearance at Thirsk, runs from the same mark and should be a big player if any sharper for that.
Hayward Field is a maiden half-brother to Swilly Ferry, who won off 96 for Barry Hills in 2010. He started life with Roger Varian and was placed in both his handicap tries but was too low-rated to stick at such a big yard and was sold off in the autumn. Now gelded, he has potential to win a handicap or two from his mark of 70.
Frankly, Wilson is so hot right now that I’m prepared to take a flyer on his Mr Enthusiastic (3.30) at 25-1 in the seven-furlong handicap for three-year-olds. He hardly beat a rival last year but, after all, he was in a stable that hasn’t had a juvenile winner since 2014.
Now he’s three, gelded, on a basement mark for his second try in a handicap and from a yard that is suddenly going well. There are plenty of reasons to hope for a career-best showing. Of course, he may run last again.
At Stratford, Free Stone Hill (3.20) is interesting at 9-2. I really liked the way he finished his race to win at Exeter last time, taking advantage of the late fall of a more fancied stablemate. He’s only gone up a couple of pounds.
The nap is Daira Prince (6.50), a 5-2 shot in a Windsor maiden. He was third in a decent backend contest at Nottingham, his second start, and the runner-up broke his maiden three weeks later. A Dubawi half-brother to a Group One winner, he comes from the Varian yard that is winning three-year-old maidens at a 39% clip so far this year.
Monday racing tips
Stratford
1.50 Gibson Park 2.20 Midnight Gypsy 2.50 Days Of Heaven 3.20 Free Stone Hill (nb) 3.50 Code Of Law 4.20 Anythingmayhappen 4.50 Black Tulip
Ayr
2.00 Go Now Go Now 2.30 Longroom 3.00 Our Place In Loule 3.30 Mr Enthusiastic 4.00 Hayward Field 4.30 King’s Pavilion 5.00 Jabbaar
Southwell
2.10 Muqarred 2.40 Mark Of Approval 3.10 Meyandi 3.40 Fortinbrass 4.10 Cryptonite 4.40 Deep Resolve 5.10 Sir Geoffrey
Chelmsford
5.40 Branscombe 6.10 Wordiness 6.40 Velvet Revolution 7.10 Parkour 7.40 Alnaas 8.10 Desert River 8.40 Mowhoob
Windsor
5.50 Starboy 6.20 Man About Town 6.50 Daira Prince (nap) 7.20 Clemento 7.50 Shargiah 8.20 Jack Of Diamonds
