The sheer quantity of mayhem in Friday’s Topham Chase was a useful and timely corrective for those tempted to present their Grand National conclusions with too much in the way of confidence. These fences may be softer in the middle than in Red Rum’s time but they still take plenty of jumping and clearly the days of loose horses taking others out of the race are not over yet.
If there is a horse in today’s field that can be trusted to navigate his way among the icebergs, it is The Druids Nephew (4.15). He was last seen taking on and beating 23 rivals at the Cheltenham Festival, looking at ease and in control throughout.
That day he could be called the winner a long way from home. It looked as though his jockey, Barry Geraghty, could have put him anywhere in the packed field that he wished and Geraghty was in the enviable position of being able to wait for a stride or two after hitting the front before asking for a final effort. If the horse tackles this track in a similar mood, he will have a better chance than most of picking his way through any trouble that happens in front of him.
The Druids Nephew is eight years old – younger than most Grand National winners – but this is his third season over fences and he has had plenty of experience. More importantly he has shown enormous improvement since joining the very promising young trainer Neil Mulholland about a year ago. Mulholland says the horse was trained through the winter with the twin targets of Cheltenham and Aintree in mind.
Geraghty’s big-race nous would have been very useful here but he has been sidelined by a fractured shin. Aidan Coleman, who won the Welsh National in December, is a highly capable replacement.
Most of the advance chatter about this race has concerned Tony McCoy, who is expected to retire on the spot if he wins on Shutthefrontdoor. This horse has excellent credentials as the winner of last year’s Irish National – but he has had only one race since, and the fact that he has not been seen in public for four months is unsettling. The same concern applies to Balthazar King, last year’s runner-up.
A big effort can be expected from Soll, who, at the age of 10, has achieved career best performances in his two most recent runs, allowing him to sneak into this race at the foot of the weights. He ran well but too freely for a long way in the 2013 race and more conservative tactics may help this time.
He appears to have improved for the switch to a new stable in the last year, a thing he has in common with The Druids Nephew and also Saint Are, an interesting each-way option at 33-1. It may be worth recalling that Pineau De Re, last year’s winner, had also changed stable the previous summer.
Pineau De Re is higher in the weights this time and will do well to get into the argument again but his stablemate Royale Knight seems to have stamina to spare and may uphold the yard’s reputation by reaching the places.
Chris Cook’s Grand National prediction
1 The Druids Nephew
2 Soll
3 Saint Are
4 Royale Knight
Tips for the day’s other races at Aintree
1.30 The eye is drawn first to As De Mee, not least because Paul Nicholls has had such a great week in the Grade One races, but it is just the mildest of concerns that his two best efforts have come at Sandown and he has to prove himself in these rather different conditions at the end of a busy novice season. Seedling should be fresher, having not raced for three months before unseating at the Cheltenham Festival. His early-season form stands comparison with anything else on offer and he appeals as the type to enjoy this drier surface.
2.05 We saw a mighty effort in the Arkle at Cheltenham from God’s Own, who briefly looked like beating Un De Sceaux. While that may have been a demanding race, it was his first since December and he has had a full month to recover, so he should be able to give his running again, back on the type of sound surface that suits him so well. While he qualifies as a novice, this is his second season over fences and it is 11 months since he won a Grade One chase, so he has a lot going for him.
2.50 Cole Harden was deeply impressive in winning the World Hurdle from the front but that came during a week when several front-runners proved able to keep on going and things may not work out so well for him this time. Whisper was only fifth that day but it was effectively his first run of the season, barring an abortive attempt over fences in January, and he is likely to strip fitter here. He won this race last year and another big run is expected, with the hurdlers from Nicky Henderson’s yard holding their form well.
3.25 It is interesting that Paul Moloney has been taken off Buywise and replaced with Adam Wedge, who used to ride this horse and is second jockey to the trainer, Evan Williams. Buywise has frustrated his followers and was again running on too late in a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival last time, but the fear has always been with him that his jumping frailties might be exposed if he were asked to race more prominently. Perhaps this story will have a happier ending today but Vino Griego is preferred. He was beaten only a head in this race last year and is 7lb lower than then, having been disappointing through the winter. He copes well with a lively surface and a first-time tongue tie may help.
