Boxing Day’s TV races by Chris Cook
There are late bloomers and then there is Colin Tizzard, who has rocketed to prominence after 20 years as a trainer, thanks to the revival of Cue Card and the emergence of Thistlecrack. On Boxing Day he will saddle 40% of the field for the King George VI Chase and many a punter would love to know his innermost thoughts as to which of his runners will emerge on top. Proven quality over potential is not a bad way to bet in the very best races, which leads me to Cue Card (3.15).
Just two months ago, there was real reason to fear he was finally in decline after he produced a disappointing effort as an odds-on shot for the Charlie Hall Chase. Three weeks later, all doubts were dispelled as he hosed up in the Betfair Chase, plainly much sharper for having had an outing and seemingly much more comfortable on a softer surface.
Coneygree, the runner-up that day, was making his comeback from injury but it is still worth remembering that he was previously unbeaten over fences and had looked a monster at times. Cue Card tamed him with ease and was 15 lengths clear at the line.
It will soon be seven years since he won his first Grade One, the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival. The runner-up from that race, Al Ferof, has recently been retired but Cue Card is as durable as few other jumpers have ever been, his most recent outing being a match for his best form according to ratings.
So it might be a shade surprising that he faces any kind of challenge at the top of the betting for this race, which he won so thrillingly last year, mowing down Vautour close home. The possibility that he might even start as second-favourite just proves the attraction of unexposed potential, represented here by Thistlecrack.
“He could be anything,” is the familiar line about the younger horse and there is no arguing that Thistlecrack will reach the top of the tree if he continues to improve as he has done over the past 18 months. But a sceptical view of his career is that he was the dominant horse in a weak division last season, there being little strength in depth among staying hurdlers at the time.
His chasing exploits so far have been no more impressive than was expected, given his hurdles form. There has, of course, been the odd ill-judged leap, of a kind that any novice would produce.
The worrying thing for those taking short odds about Thistlecrack is that he has been under almost no pressure in those first runs over fences, whereas he will be under pressure here from the outset and throughout. His main rival has masses of experience of meeting these fences at speed alongside quality rivals, which Thistlecrack entirely lacks.
There is also a suspicion that Cue Card has more basic pace than his rival, having been kept to two miles for much of his early career, when he showed up with credit against Sprinter Sacre. It’s not hard to imagine him hacking along behind Thistlecrack for much of the race, joining him at the second-last and easing ahead from there.
Perhaps Thistlecrack will already have galloped his rivals into submission by then. But at the available odds, that does not look the way to bet.
• 1.30 Kempton: With five winners in the past 10 years, Nicky Henderson is the trainer to follow in this novice handicap chase. His Gold Present showed instant improvement for the switch to the larger obstacles at Doncaster last time and there should be a fair bit more to come.
• 1.50 Wetherby: Though he finished well beaten, Blaklion put up a fine effort in the Hennessy Gold Cup, when he was third and travelling strongly at the top of the home straight. He couldn’t stay with the leaders from there but faces nothing of similar quality in this field and may be capable of better again, with Nigel Twiston-Davies’s string now in something like top form. Blaklion took three or four runs to reach his peak last season and he’ll be a formidable opponent under top weight here if following a similar arc.
• 2.05 Kempton: Anibale Fly was quickly backed into favouritism when the betting opened on this race and it’s easy to see why. A useful hurdler last term, he really caught the eye when staying on into second in an Irish Grade One last time, beaten only by another horse carrying the same colours, those of JP McManus. This step up in distance should show him in an even better light. Frodon faces a tough task for a four-year-old, only 16 days after a hard-fought handicap success round Cheltenham.
• 2.40 Kempton: Yanworth seems a slightly surprising favourite, having been beaten in the only two Grade Ones he has contested and arguably lacking the necessary pace for this. The New One showed at Cheltenham last time that he retains all his ability and he looks the solid option.
