The biggest successes of Lucy Wadham’s training career have all been over hurdles but that may be about to change. Le Reve (3.45) represents her in Kempton’s Betbright Chase and may be worth sticking with at 10-1 after turning in a career best last time at Sandown.
Le Reve has just turned seven and, even after 11 outings over fences, he ought to have more to offer. There was certainly promise in the way he cruised up behind his rivals last month and pulled five lengths clear. In that 10-runner race he was the only one of the first four who made up significant ground from off the pace.
Raised 7lb for that, he should still be competitive and he won over hurdles on his only previous visit to this track. A right-handed circuit appears to be a necessity. All five of his successes have involved turning right while he has been beaten at least 18 lengths whenever asked to go the other way.
This is a big field and the winner will need things to fall right. Easter Day was running well until falling last time but has sometimes looked ponderous and may be vulnerable through lack of pace. Fox Appeal is not obviously well treated.
1.45 Lingfield When last seen in November Intransigent won a similar race over course and distance, overcoming a wide draw thanks in part to a strong pace being set by others. A similar pace this time should allow him to run well again.
2.00 Kempton Outclassed at Cheltenham last time, Bivouac has better prospects against these rivals. He won around here over Christmas.
2.20 Newcastle Desoto County, on his first run since April, may have been short of peak fitness when a beaten favourite at Musselburgh in December. Donald McCain’s runners were generally faring poorly at the time but things look different now and this grey could prove well treated.
2.35 Kempton Paul Nicholls has won this race seven times from the last eight years in which he had a runner and his Irish Saint is likely to run with credit. But he has a bit to prove against God’s Own, who is only a novice in a technical sense, this being his second season over fences. He won a Grade One back in May and had too much pace for Balder Succes at Exeter in November.
2.55 Newcastle While there is a danger in making too many excuses for a horse, Shotgun Paddy is worth forgiving for his three beaten efforts this term, various events having conspired against him. He looks handily weighted for when things fall right and his depths of stamina should be put to good use here, so long as his jumping holds up.
3.10 Kempton Nicky Henderson can achieve a third win in 10 years in this two-mile hurdle, through Days Of Heaven. This is a significant step up in class but things have come easily for the five-year-old since a hood was fitted and he offers more promise than his four rivals.
3.25 Lingfield Grandeur would be a safe choice but there may be more to come from Afonso De Sousa, a half-brother to the Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown. Placed in a Group Three on the all-weather in Ireland, he has been with Aidan O’Brien until now. Very few can expect to improve a horse from that yard but it would be just like David O’Meara to manage it somehow.
3.35 Chepstow Despite the small field, this may be a very tough test for Sire De Grugy off a mark of 172. Winning a handicap from such a lofty rating is no easy matter. Denman’s second Hennessy victory, hailed as one of the great weight-carrying efforts of all time, was from only 2lb higher. Bearing in mind the way Sire De Grugy’s jumping let him down last time, plus the possibility that Jamie Moore will wish to save something for a bigger target next month, this likable chestnut looks rotten value at odds-on. Far West is the biggest name among his rivals but he has yet to seem a natural fencer. Grey Gold appeals more at 4-1, from a mark only 4lb higher than the one from which he scored on his last visit to this specialist’s track.
Good luck!
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