Is it rational, having watched a 50-1 shot silence the grandstands by winning the Oaks, to recommend a bet on the Derby favourite the following day? Those who truffle for surprise winners among the rank outsiders will be on excellent terms with themselves this morning and will scoff at the idea of backing a horse at the measly odds of 7-4 but Golden Horn (4.30) is the class act in today’s line-up and can give Frankie Dettori a second taste of Derby glory.
If the bookmakers are feeling unexpectedly wealthy after Qualify’s stunning success on Friday, perhaps they may push Golden Horn out to 2-1 or bigger to tempt sulking punters back into the shops. After all, their liabilities on him cannot be great, the colt’s status having changed from ‘unlikely runner’ to ‘hot favourite’ in the space of two minutes last month.
That was how long it took the run the Dante Stakes at York, the most reliable Derby trial in recent years. The latest running was keenly anticipated, as it pitted Elm Park against Jack Hobbs, both horses with established reputations, but Golden Horn shot past both to win with authority.
That was just his third appearance on a racecourse, making him one of the least experienced in this field but he looked a thorough professional at York, settling nicely behind the pace before going through with his effort when asked. One can never be sure a horse will cope with Epsom’s cambers and undulations until they run here but his size, action and attitude suggest there should not be a problem.
Those who cannot bring themselves to support a favourite will find reasons to query his stamina but Epsom is drying out and this course is not always a severe test of stamina in the summer. Other Dante winners have come here and got tired but he beat the best field assembled for any of the recent trials and there was no hint of a wilt as he bowled across the line.
Elm Park may be fitter this time and is respected, though he seems more of a St Leger type, as do Kilimanjaro and Storm The Stars. Giovanni Canaletto looks the biggest danger, having been unfairly criticised for a recent defeat when in fact he showed plenty of promise.
Each-way backers might consider Moheet, for whom nothing much has gone right this year. The son of a Derby winner, he scored over a mile as a juvenile, so it is not impossible that he might have the stamina for this. Hopefully we have all learned not to just write off 50-1 shots.
2.00 Epsom Stravagante leaps off the page, having been third to Jack Hobbs last time, albeit at a respectful distance. But he found trouble in running at Sandown and this tricky track may not be easy for a horse of his inexperience, breaking from a wide stall in a big field. Resonant is preferred, having shown dramatic improvement to win his last two. He should be able to get the lead from stall six and may be hard to catch on this drying surface.
2.35 Epsom Richard Fahey does not send juveniles to Epsom for the sake of using up some diesel, having won three times here with 10 two-year-old runners in recent seasons. His Jeanie’s Place is overlooked at 9-1 here but she did remarkably well to overcome a slow start and cuff her rivals by three lengths on her debut. That was at Thirsk and there is no denying that others in this field have stronger form claims but few have her potential for improvement on just her second start and her pedigree is a pleasing blend of speed and more speed.
3.10 Epsom The ground is drying out for Flintshire but he has been frustrating for a horse of his talent, winning just once in his last 10 starts. Dolniya has beaten him in their last two races and the impression is that she will increase her margin of superiority here.
3.45 Epsom Hold onto your hats, it’s the fastest race of the year, with some runnings dipping below 54 seconds. Caspian Prince won it last year and, although he’s earned a bigger weight this time, I’ll happily take 10-1 about an encore, with the excellent Adam Kirby back in the saddle and a handy draw for a front-runner. He was well beaten when last seen in Meydan but that was a Group One, after all.
