Boxing Day preview of ITV races
The extraordinary talent that is Might Bite (3.05) surely has this year’s King George at his mercy, the principal danger being his propensity for embracing disaster when success seems about to fall in his lap. The 11-8 which is available as I type is adequate compensation for the risk that he will find a new way to trip himself up.
A proper chaser on looks, he had a few false starts to his career over obstacles, but would be unbeaten in his last six had he not taken a crashing fall at the last in the Kauto Star. That is not the happiest memory for his backers today, since it came over this course and distance, on this very day last year.
No repeats are wanted of that purler, nor yet of his very odd performance at the Festival, when he threw away a huge lead by hanging towards the stable exit, then rallied to poke his nose in front on the line. If he had the placid temperament of your average steeplechaser, he’d have won those two top-class races by a combined 30 lengths.
Perhaps he will fluff his lines once more but that is not the way to bet. On ability alone, I make him an odds-on shot to give Nicky Henderson a third King George.
Tactics can always be the undoing of a good horse and one would not wish to see him and Thistlecrack taking each other on from a mile out. But Thistlecrack was disappointing on his return from a tendon injury and the encouraging noises from his camp do not dispel the expectation that he will be short of his best once more.
Conditions appear to have gone against Bristol De Mai, a devastating winner of the Betfair Chase, who must win this to keep alive his connections’ hopes of a £1m bonus. Mild temperatures, strong winds and little rainfall in the forecast suggest he will not get the muddy conditions in which he thrives.
If there is to be an upset, it could come from Fox Norton, stepping up to three miles for the first time. These conditions give him every chance of staying the new trip and he has looked ready for it in one or two of his starts this year. He has masses of class and his pace will make him a threat to all if he is still in contention in the home straight.
1.20 Kempton Henderson does love this track and this race could set him up for a fine day there. The Lambourn trainer’s record in handicap chases generally is perhaps less impressive than might be expected but he knows how to win this one and has done so four times from the last nine runnings. It is therefore fascinating to see him bring Reigning Supreme here for his handicap debut, on what will also be his first race over fences. A decent pointer from the same family as the Gold Cup winner Garrison Savannah, he was two from three over hurdles but chasing should be his game and it would be no surprise to find his rating is lenient.
1.55 Kempton Two years after Lizzie Kelly won this Grade One, it is by no means inconceivable that Bryony Frost could strike another blow for female jockeys aboard Black Corton, who will be helped by a drier surface than usual for this fixture. Still, the impression is of a horse who has been punching above his weight and one of his opponents will probably be too good. Alan King’s mare Mia’s Storm has blossomed over fences and, although this is a real step up in class, she looks good enough to take it in her stride.
2.10 Wetherby With his Penrith yard in good form, Nicky Richards can get a first success in the Rowland Meyrick, 24 years after his father scored with General Pershing. He fields Baywing, whose career best performance came on his last attempt at this course and distance, when landing a Grade Two in February at odds of 33-1. Excuses can be made for his subsequent defeats.
2.30 Kempton The Nicky Henderson Benefit Raceday continues with the Christmas Hurdle, which does not look as competitive as one would like a Grade One to be. Buveur D’Air will be long odds-on and deserves to be. A thoroughly convincing top-class hurdler in his last three starts, the six-year-old could be fancied to give Faugheen a fright if they ever met and the four rivals ranged against him here have no right to beat him. Nigel Twiston-Davies would like nothing better than to turn over the favourite with The New One, bested by another Henderson horse in frustrating circumstances 10 days ago. But The New One has lacked the pace to win this race three times already and he is not getting any faster.
Tips for all Boxing Day races
Kempton
12.45 Diese Des Bieffes 1.20 Reigning Supreme 1.55 Mia’s Storm 2.30 Buveur D’Air 3.05 Might Bite 3.40 Kildisart
Huntingdon
11.40 Amberjam 12.10 Boreham Bill 12.40 Trojan Star 1.15 Smart Boy 1.50 Bestwork 2.25 Grageelagh Girl 3.00 Becauseshesaidso 3.35 The Big Bite
Sedgefield
11.55 Quick Pick 12.25 Oak Vintage 1.00 Rockalzaro 1.35 Tonto’s Spirit (nb) 2.05 Whitsundays 2.40 Ange Des Malberaux 3.15 Birch Vale
Wetherby
12.00 Petticoat Tails 12.30 Pinch Of Ginger 1.05 Dalaman 1.40 Caraline 2.10 Baywing 2.45 Ryedale Racer 3.20 Royal Beekeeper
Market Rasen
12.05 Cliffside Park 12.35 Ashkoul 1.10 Boagrius (nap) 1.45 Compadre 2.15 Vinegar Hill 2.50 Bisoubisou 3.25 See The Rock
Wolverhampton
12.05 Royal Pursuit 12.40 Windsor Cross 1.10 King Kevin 1.45 Emenem 2.15 Ocean Of Love 2.50 Line Of Reason 3.25 King Of Nepal 4.00 Smugglers Creek
Fontwell
12.20 River Dun 12.50 Oxford Blu 1.25 Jersey Bean 2.00 Brown Bear 2.35 Champagne George 3.10 Silent Man 3.45 Undefined Beauty
Wincanton
12.25 Quiz Master 12.55 If You Say Run 1.30 Persian Delight 2.05 Wizards Bridge 2.40 Coeur Tantre 3.15 Jessber’s Dream 3.50 Lechlade Magician
